the cpb regional labour market model a tool for longterm scenario construction

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1、TheCPBregionallabourmarketmodel:atoolforlong-termscenarioconstructionEugèneVerkade*)e.m.verkade@cpb.nlandWouterVermeulen*),**)w.vermeulen@cpb.nl*):CPBNetherlandsBureauforEconomicPolicyAnalysisP.O.Box80510,2508GM,TheHague**):FreeUniversityAmsterdam,Departmen

2、tofSpatialEconomicsDeBoelelaan1105,1081HV,Amsterdam21SummaryThischapterprovidesabriefintroductiontotheCPBregionallabourmarketmodel.Inaddition,itindicateshowthemodelcanbeusedfortheconstructionoflong-termscenarios,suchasthescenariosthatwillbepresentedinthefor

3、thcomingWelfareandPhysicalSurroundings(WLO)study.ThemainpurposeofthemodelistoprojectthespatialdistributionofpopulationandemploymentintheNetherlands.Asanempiricalfoundation,behaviouralequationsfornetdomesticmigrationandemploymentgrowthhavebeenestimatedon1970

4、-2000regionaltimeseries.Incontrasttothepopularbeliefthat“peoplefollowjobs”,evidencesuggeststhatinthelongrun,employmentadjuststothespatialdistributionofpopulation(so“jobsfollowpeople”).Inthemodel,housingsupplyisamaindeterminantofnetdomesticmigrationandchange

5、sintheregionalpopulationtriggeremploymentgrowth.Thesevariablesareembeddedinconsistentregionallabourmarketaccounts.Asinputs,theCPBregionallabourmarketmodelusesscenariosforanumberofregionaldemographicvariables,aswellasscenariosforthenationaleconomy.Stabilityo

6、ftheprojectionsisenhancedbyequilibriumadjustmentinthemainbehaviouralequations.Furthermore,theoutputscenariosaccountfortime-invariantdifferencesbetweenregions.Thechaptersuggestsanumberofstrategiesforobtainingvariationinregionalscenarios.21IntroductionTheCPBN

7、etherlandsBureauforEconomicPolicyAnalysishasbuiltaregionallabourmarketmodelfortheNetherlandsthatprojectstheregionaldistributionofpopulationandemploymentWethankJelteHaagsmaforpreparingthedatasetsandforhisassistanceinconstructingtheactualmodel.Helpfuldiscussi

8、onswithourcolleaguesatCPBarealsogratefullyacknowledged..ItwillbeusedintheforthcomingstudyWelfareandPhysicalSurroundingsasatoolfortheconstructionoflong-termquantitativescenarios.Asplanningofresidentiala