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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChinaChinesebanks15August2017Banking/FinanceBanksResultsHansFan,CFAJackyZuoBetterearningsqualityshoulddriveResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036353(+852)22036255bigbanks're-ratinghans.fan@db.comjacky.zuo@db.comBank
2、ingquarterlydata2Q17:widerdivergencebetweenbigandsmallerbanksEdwardDuTheCBRCreleased2Q17operatingdataforChina’sallcommercialbanks,withResearchAssociatequarterlynetprofitatRmb477bn,up11.6%yoy(1Q17:+4.6%).Theearnings(+852)22036185recoverywasdrivenbymoderatingNPLf
3、ormation,lowercreditcostandmildedward.du@db.comNIMexpansion(Fig1).Forthebigbanks,weseegradualimprovementsinearningsquality,characterizedbyanNIMrecovery,lowerNPLratioandStephenAndrews,CFAstrongerprovisioncoverage.Hence,weexpectthebigbankstoreportsolidResearchAna
4、lyst2Q17results,whichshouldhelpdriveare-rating.Incontrast,joint-stockbanks(+852)-22036191(JSBs)slowedassetgrowthnotablyandreportedfurtherNIMcontractionamidstephen-a.andrews@db.comfinancialdeleveraging.WestaycautiousonJSBs.Toppicks:ICBCandBOC.NIMtrend:bigbanks(r
5、ecovered)vs.JSBs/citybanks(compressed)ToppicksNIMfortheentirebankingsectorwasup2bpsqoqto2.05%(1Q17:downICBC(1398.HK),HKD5.40Buy19bps),duetogradualassetrepricing.Averageyieldfornewcorporateloanspickedup40bpsYTD.Specifically,bigbanks’NIMwasup3bpsqoq,whileBankofCh
6、ina(3988.HK),HKD3.84BuyJSBs&citycommercialbanks’NIMswerebothdown2bpsqoq(Fig4).ThisSource:DeutscheBankshowscontinuingfundingpressureforsmallerbanks.WethinkNIMpressureCompaniesFeaturedwillcontinueforJSBsinthenearterm,givenstillelevatedmarketratesandICBC(1398.HK),
7、HKD5.40Buymoreintensecompetitionfordeposits.ChinaConstructionBankBuyAssetqualityriskfurtherrelieved;NPLformationstayedlow(0939.HK),HKD6.45WeestimateannualizedNPLformationtobe85bpsin2Q17,higherthanAgri.BankofChina(1288.HK),HKD3.56Buy49bpsin1Q17butlowerthan126bps
8、in2016.Asaresult,banksonlysetasideBankofChina(3988.HK),HKD3.84Buycreditcostof92bps,muchlowerthan136bpsin2Q16.SectorNPLratiowasBankofCommunicationsBuyflattishqoqat1.74%(Fig6)
