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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateHongKongChinesebanks13July2017Banking/FinanceBanksIndustryUpdateHansFan,CFAJackyZuoJune2017bankingvolume–WhyhasResearchAnalystResearchAssociate(+852)22036353(+852)22036255slowercreditnothurtGDPmuch?hans.fan@db.comj
2、acky.zuo@db.comCreditandM2growthslowed,buttherealeconomymaintaineditsmomentumStephenAndrews,CFAThePBOCreportednewloansofRmb1.54trnandTSFofRmb1.78trnforJuneResearchAnalyst2017.Whilebothexceededconsensusestimates,China’screditgrowthslowed(+852)-22036191to14.7
3、%yoyinJunefrom15.2%inMay(Fig1),keepingthecreditimpulsestephen-a.andrews@db.com(three-monthTSFasapercentageofGDP)belowthe10-yearaverage(Fig2).ThiscontradictsthestillresilienteconomicmomentumevidencedbyastableToppicksPPIandabove-50PMI.Inourview,improvingcorpo
4、rateprofitability,areductioninself-circulatingfundsandbettercreditallocationefficiencyprovideICBC(1398.HK),HKD5.19Buybuffers.Whilefinancialdeleveragingmaycontinue,weexpectonlyamodestSource:DeutscheBanknegativeimpactontherealeconomy.BuyICBC/BOC/CCB.Companies
5、FeaturedThreemainreasonsfortherathermildimpactofslowercreditgrowthICBC(1398.HK),HKD5.19BuyFirstofall,corporateprofitabilityinChinahasbeenimprovingandthisislikelyChinaConstructionBankBuytocontinue,drivenbystrictimplementationofsupplysidereformsand(0939.HK),H
6、KD6.34resilientdemandgrowth.SOEs,whichmadeupone-thirdoftotalcredit,areAgri.BankofChina(1288.HK),HKD3.59Holdapproachingtheinflectionpointofdeleveraging(Fig6),withprofitgrowthBankofChina(3988.HK),HKD3.75Buyalmostexceedingdebtgrowth.Secondly,thecreditslowdownw
7、aspartlyBankofCommunicationsHoldattributabletoareductioninself-circulatingfunds,whichwerecirculating(3328.HK),HKD5.67amongvariousfinancialinstitutionsviamultiplelayersofSPVswithoutChinaMerchantsBankHold(3968.HK),HKD23.90supportingtherealeconomy.Assuch,cutti
8、ngthemoff(Figs.8&9)wouldChinaCITICBank(0998.HK),HKD4.94Sellhavearatherlimitedimpact.Lastly,creditdistributioninthecorporatesectorChinaMinshengBank(1988.HK),HKD7.83Sellhasbeenimproving,withadeclineincre
