巴黎银行-全球-外汇策略-巴黎银行外汇指南

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1、Thisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:BNPParibasLondonBranchMichaelSneyd,CFA,GlobalHeadofFXStrategy&Cross-AssetStrategistNatalieRickard,FXStrategistAUDUSDshorttermvalue(FV=0.7881)EURSEKshorttermvalue(FV=9.9434)0.8210.050.810.809.950.790.789.850.779.750.760.759.650.7

2、49.550.7301-Nov-201701-Dec-201701-Jan-201801-Nov-201701-Dec-201701-Jan-2018STEERAUDUSDSTEEREURSEKBNPParibasSTEER™Model-TradingSignalsEntryDatePositionEntryRateTargetStopLossCloseRateReturn(%)SignalsUpdatedTodayNewSignals29-Jan-18LONGEURSEK9.78609.94349.7073-

3、0.00ClosedSignals–noclosedsignalstodayExistingSignals–noexistingsignalstodayRecentlyClosedSignals15-Jan-18LONGUSDSGD1.3220--1.3186(17-Jan-18)-0.2615-Jan-18SHORTUSDKRW1062.7--1066.6(17-Jan-18)-0.3608-Jan-18LONGEURNOK9.6854--9.5804(17-Jan-18)-1.0819-Jan-18LONG

4、USDZAR12.1366--12.087(22-Jan-18)-0.4119-Jan-18SHORTGBPUSD1.3895--1.4028(24-Jan-18)-0.96Notes:STEERsignalsthattherelationshipsbetweenFXanditsunderlyingfundamentalsappeartobebreakingdown.STEER’scointegationfilterhasswitchedoffmanyofSTEER’smodels–halfofboththe

5、G10andEMmodelsareoff–signallingreducedstatisticalconfidenceinthemodels.SeehereforadetaileddiscussioninthelatestGlobalFXPlus.OneofthemodelswhichremainscointegratedisEURSEK,whichappearstohavedeclinedtoofaraccordingtoSTEER.STEERhasinitiatedalongEURSEKsignaltar

6、geting9.9434.EURSEKappearstobestronglypositivelycorrelatedwithglobalequitiesaccordingtoSTEER,soasglobalequitieshaveralliedthefairvaluehasrisen.Asaresult,EURSEKappears2.4z-scoresundervaluednow.TheEMcurrencypairswhichremaincointegratedsignalthatEMFXappearsbro

7、adlyfairlyvalued.Pleaserefertoimportantinformationattheendofthereportwww.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.comBNPParibasSTEER™Model–G10Deviationfromshort-termvalue(z-score)3.02.01.00.0-1.0-2.0-3.0-4.0-5.0EURCHFUSDJPYUSDCADEURNOKEURSEKEURGBPEURUSDGBPUSDAUDUSDNZDUSD22-

8、Jan-201829-Jan-2018CurrencyEURCHFUSDJPYUSDCADEURNOKEURSEKEURGBPEURUSDGBPUSDAUDUSDNZDUSDSTEER1.2241113.191.26499.88599.94340.89751.25001.39280.78810.7047Spot1.1620108.801.23409.55509.78600.87801.