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1、SteelPriceTrackerDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateAustria17January2018FranceSteelPriceTrackerSteelPeriodicalSteelSteelpricemomentumcontinuestolastBastianSynagowitzWillsteelpricesfallormaintaintheirstrength?ResearchAnalystSteelequitiescontinuetobevolatile,drivenbymacrowoesan
2、dcommoditypricemovements.Althoughcurrentspotconditionsremainstrong,westillexpectcost+41-44-227-3377supporttofade,andthus,Europeanpricestofall(currentspotconditionswouldToppicksimplyfurthersignificantearningsupgradesacrossthespace). Ourtoppicksare:ArcelorMittal(MT.AS),EUR30.52Buy1)Arcelo
3、rMittal,whichlooksattractivetousbasedonstrongcashflow(9-11%Voestalpine(VOES.VI),EUR53.48BuyFCFyield),valuationandadditionalupsideoptionality;and2)Voestalpine,whichSource:DeutscheBankwebelievehasmoreroomforupgrades,generatesstrongunderlyingCF(8-9%FCFyield)andhasalessvolatilebusinessmodel
4、.HRC:N.EuropeanpricesupE6Lastweek,N.EuropeanpriceswereupbyE6toE541(upbyUSD5toUSD650)Figure1:HRCpricesandS.EuropeanpriceswerealsoupbyE5toE524(upbyUSD4toUSD630).USD/t1,050NorthernEuropeUSAChinaexportstoEuropePriceshaverisenE8inthepastthreemonths.Yet,severalEuropeanplayershave1,000950900s
5、tartedtopushforaE20/tpricehike.850800750USHRCpricesupUSD14;Chineseexportpriceswerestable700650USHRCpriceswereupUSD14lastweekandUSplayersannouncedpricehikes600550500ofUSD40/t.ThepricedifferentialwithChinaincreasedtoUSD163/t.ChineseHRC450400priceswerestableatUSD572.ThespreadbetweenChinese
6、andS.European350300250pricesrosetoUSD58,inlinewithtwo-yearaveragespreadofUSD58,with200JanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanChinesepricesupE7(upUSD19)inthelastthreemonths.1414141415151515161616161717171718Source:TheSteelIndexPlate:N.EuropeanpricesupE8;USpricesupbyUSD11N.Eu
7、ropeanpriceswereupE8toE583(upUSD7toUSD700).PricesroseE6inFigure2:Rawmaterialpricesthepastmonth.S.EuropeanpriceswerestableatE550(downinUSDtermsbyUSD/tIronoreFines62%Fe,CFRTianjin,ChinaShreddedscrap,US(RHS)USD/t550USD2toUSD661).USpriceswereupbyUSD11toUSD824(upE11toE686)and210500190USpl
