巴克莱-美股-美国农业-牛肉报价-2017.8.10-barclays-americas agribusiness bbq- ben's beef quotes aug 2017

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1、EquityResearch10August2017AmericasAgribusinessINDUSTRYUPDATEBBQ–Ben’sBeefQuotes:Aug2017AmericasAgribusinessNEUTRALDearreader,welcometoourAugusteditionof“BBQ–Ben’sBeefQuotes”,inwhichUnchangedwehighlightimportantnewsandmajortrendsinagri-productpricing,demandandtrad

2、edata.Weincludeeggs,poultry,pork,plussomelambandveal–it’snotallbeef!AmericasAgribusinessBenjaminM.TheurerNews+525552413322Substitutemeatmarketexpectedtogrow–Plant-basedmeatnichemarketisbenjamin.theurer@barclays.comexpectedtoreachUS$5.2bngloballyby2020;TysonFoodsi

3、salreadyparticipatinginit.BBMX,MexicoJapanbeefimporttariffhiketo50%threatensU.S.trade–JapaniscurrentlytheU.S.’sAntonioHernandez+525552413323largestexportmarketforbeefandveal.ThetariffhikeisarisktoU.S.beefsalesanditsantonio.hernandez@barclays.comtradedeficitassupp

4、liesforbeefhaveincreasedinrecentmonths.BBMX,MexicoFavorableconditionsformeatproducerstoincreaseprofit–Chickenproducersaretobenefitfromstrongpoultrydemand,lowerfeedcostsandhigherproductprices.Prices&FeedIndustryandmarkettrendsremainhealthyandcommoditypricesremain

5、relativelystable.Productionandslaughteraregrowingandfeedcostsremainlow.Inadditiontothis,theconditionsanddemandbothdomesticandgloballyappeartosupportsustainedgrowthahead,inourview.BringhometheBacon…tobuymorebacon.Porkcutoutwholesalepricehasincreased17%sincethebeg

6、inningoftheyear,asofJuly.Thepriceincreaseisdrivenbyagrowingdemandbeyondexpected,whichhasbeenhardtokeepupwithdespiteincreasingcropsandgrowthinhogslaughter.Trade&USDAWecontinuetobelieveU.S.hasasolidpositionintermsofexports,giventheentrytoChina’simportedbeefmarket.

7、Yet,wekeepacautiouseyeontherecentdecisiontoincreasetariffsfromJapananditsimpactingeneralonothercountries.NAFTAstillmaters–MexicocontinuestogrowimportsfromtheU.S,andanychange/restrictioncouldhavenegativeimplicationforU.S.farmersandprocessors.Consumptionoutlookre

8、mainspositive:ThelatestUSDAestimatesfor2017and2018poultryandredmeatpercapitaconsumptionstandat216.6mnlbs.and219.6mnlbs.,respectively,bothwellabovethereported21