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时间:2018-02-10
《credible government policies》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在工程资料-天天文库。
1、Chapter23CredibleGovernmentPolicies,I23.1.IntroductionKydlandandPrescott(1977)openedthemoderndiscussionoftimeconsistencyinmacroeconomicswithsomeexamplesthatshowhowoutcomesdifferinother-wiseidenticaleconomieswhentheassumptionsaboutthetimingofgovernmentpolicychoic
2、esarealtered.1Inparticular,theycomparedatimingprotocolinwhichagovernmentchoosesits(possiblyhistory-contingent)policiesonceandforallatthebeginningoftimewithoneinwhichthegovernmentchoosessequentially.Becauseoutcomesareworsewhenthegovernmentchoosessequen-tially,Ky
3、dlandandPrescott’sexamplesillustratethevaluetoagovernmentofhavinga“commitmenttechnology”thatrequiresitnottochoosesequentially.Subsequentworkontimeconsistencyfocusedonhowareputationcansubsti-tuteforacommitmenttechnologywhenthegovernmentchoosessequentially.2Theis
4、sueiswhetherconstraintsconfrontingthegovernmentandprivatesec-torexpectationscanbearrangedsothatagovernmentadherestoanexpectedpatternofbehaviorbecauseitwouldworsenitsreputationifitdidnot.A“folktheorem”fromgametheorystatesthatifthereisnodiscountingoffuturepayoffs,
5、thenvirtuallyanyfirst-periodpayoffcanbesustainedasareputationalequilibrium.Amainpurposeofthischapteristostudyhowdis-countingmightshrinkthesetofoutcomesthatareattainablewithareputationalmechanism.Modernformulationsofreputationalmodelsofgovernmentpolicyuseandextend
6、ideasfromdynamicprogramming.Eachperiod,agovernmentfaceschoiceswhoseconsequencesincludeafirst-periodreturnandareputationto1Considertwoextensive-formversionsofthe“battleofthesexes”gamedescribedbyKreps(1990),oneinwhichthemanchoosesfirst,theotherinwhichthewomanchoose
7、sfirst.Backwardinductionrecoversdifferentoutcomesinthesetwodifferentgames.Thoughtheysharethesamechoicesetsandpayoffs,thesearedifferentgames.2BarroandGordon(1983a,1983b)areearlycontributorstothisliterature.SeeKennethRogoff(1989)forasurvey.–937–938CredibleGovernmentPol
8、icies,Ipassontonextperiod.Underrationalexpectations,anyreputationthatthegovernmentcarriesintonextperiodmustbeonethatitwillwanttoconfirm.Weshallstudythesetofpossiblevaluesthat
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