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大小:329.57 KB
页数:9页
时间:2018-02-10
《improved supply chain management based on hybrid demand forecasts》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在工程资料-天天文库。
1、Int.J.ProductionEconomics143(2013)198–206ContentslistsavailableatSciVerseScienceDirectInt.J.ProductionEconomicsjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/ijpeIntermittentdemandforecastswithneuralnetworksnNikolaosKourentzesDepartmentofManagementScience,LancasterUniversity
2、ManagementSchool,Lancaster,LancashireLA14YX,UKarticleinfoabstractArticlehistory:Intermittentdemandappearswhendemandeventsoccuronlysporadically.TypicallysuchtimeseriesReceived24February2012havefewobservationsmakingintermittentdemandforecastingchallenging.Forecasterrors
3、canbeAccepted9January2013costlyintermsofunmetdemandorobsolescentstock.IntermittentdemandforecastinghasbeenAvailableonline20January2013addressedusingestablishedforecastingmethods,includingsimplemovingaverages,exponentialKeywords:smoothingandCroston’smethodwithitsvarian
4、ts.Thisstudyproposesaneuralnetwork(NN)Intermittentdemandmethodologytoforecastintermittenttimeseries.TheseNNsareusedtoprovidedynamicdemandNeuralnetworksrateforecasts,whichdonotassumeconstantdemandrateinthefutureandcancaptureinteractionsCroston’smethodbetweenthenon-zero
5、demandandtheinter-arrivalrateofdemandevents.ThisovercomestheForecastinglimitationsofCroston’smethod.Inordertomitigatetheissueoflimitedfittingsample,whichisSlowmovingitemscommoninintermittentdemand,theproposedmodelsuseregularisedtrainingandmedianensemblesovermultipletra
6、ininginitialisationstoproducerobustforecasts.TheNNsareevaluatedagainstestablishedbenchmarksusingbothforecastingaccuracyandinventorymetrics.Thefindingsofforecastingandinventorymetricsareconflicting.WhileNNsachievedpoorforecastingaccuracyandbias,allNNvariantsachievedhighe
7、rservicelevelsthanthebestperformingCroston’smethodvariant,withoutrequiringanalogousincreasesinstockholdingvolume.Therefore,NNsarefoundtobeeffectiveforintermittentdemandapplications.Thisstudyprovidesfurtherargumentsandevidenceagainsttheuseofconventionalforecastingaccur
8、acymetricstoevaluateforecastingmethodsforintermittentdemand,concludingthatattentiontoinventorymetricsisdesirable.&2013Elsevi
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