欢迎来到天天文库
浏览记录
ID:57750456
大小:440.34 KB
页数:6页
时间:2020-03-28
《等维新息熵值法在中长期负荷预测中的应用.pdf》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、第26卷第l2期电力系统及其自动化学报Vo1_26No.122014年12月ProceedingsoftheCSU—EPSADec.2014等维新息熵值法在中长期负荷预测中的应用叶宗斌,周步祥,林楠,付锦,孔祥聪,汝锐锐,田园(1.四川大学电气信息学院,成都610065;2.四川电力职业技术学院,成都610071;3.南充市供电公司,南充637000)摘要:针对电力系统中长期负荷预测会受到很多不定因素的影响,通过采用组合预测等维新息熵值法对中长期电力负荷进行建模,建立了基于等维新息熵值法组合预测数学模型。先是用最优加权几何平均法和灰色关联分析法算出单一预测
2、模型的权重,接着由熵值法确定模型评价指标的相对权重,最终获得组合权重因子。在组合预测模型中引入了等维新息数据处理的思想,实现了变权重,使预测结果能够更加合理地反映负荷发展趋势;并通过寻找等维新息的最佳维数区,优化了等维新息熵值法组合预测模型,得到更高的预测精度。计算结果显示了采用等维新息熵值法对中长期电力负荷进行预测的有效性。关键词:组合预测;熵值法;等维新息;最佳维数;变权重中图分类号:TM715文献标志码:A文章编号:1003—8930(2014)12—0036—05ApplicationofEqualDimensionalInnovationEntr
3、opyMethodinMid-longTermLoadForecastYEZong-hin,ZHOUBu-xiang,LINNan,FUJin,KONGXiang-cong,RURui-rui,TIANYuan(1.SchoolofElectricalEngineeringandInformation,SichuanUniversity,Chengdu610065,China;2.SichuanElectricPowerCollege,Chengdu610071,China;3.NanchongPowerSupplyCompany,Nanchong6370
4、00,China)Abstract:themid-longtermloadforecastingforpowersystemisusuallyinfluencedbyuncertainties,themedium—andlong—termloadforecastingismodeledbycombinationforecastingonthebasisofcombinedforecastequaldimen-sionalinnovationentropymethod,Thecombinedpredictivemodelofequaldimensionaln
5、ewinnovationentropymethodinmid-longtermloadforecastisconstructed.Theoptimalweightedgeometricaveragemethodandgreycorrelationalanalysisareutilizedtocalculatetheweightsofeachsinglemodelundereachevaluationindex,thentheentropymethodwasintroducedtocomputetheweightsofmodelevaluationindex
6、es.Finally,thecombinedweightsaredetermined.In—novationandequaldimensionaloperatorswasintroducedinthecombinedforecastingmodel,thustheweightofcombi—nationforecastingcanbevariable,andthepredictiveresultsreasonablyreflectthevarianttendencyofpowerload,andseektheoptimaldimension.Athast,
7、optimalcombinedforecastingmodelcanbeobtainedandtheaccuracyofpredic—tionscanbeenhanced.Testingresultsverifiesthefeasibilityofequaldimensionalinnovationentropymethodinmid—longtermloadforecasting.Keywords:combinedforecast;entropymethod;equaldimensionalinnovation;optimaldimension;vari
8、ableweight电力系统中长期负荷预测是未来电力规划、判断,该
此文档下载收益归作者所有