中国复苏态势良好.pdf

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1、21April2020EquityResearchAsiaPacific

2、ChinaChinaMarketStrategyChinaBacktoSpend2:RecoveryinbettershapeStrategy

3、StrategyFigure1:MonthlychangeofconsumergoodsretailsalesYoYgrowthResearchAnalystsEdmondHuang85221016701edmond.huang@credit-suisse.comContributingAnalystsKennethFongkenneth.kc.fong@credit-

4、suisse.comBinWangbin.wang@credit-suisse.comSource:NBSTinaLongThegradualrecoveryofChinaconsumptionisontrack,althoughtherearestilltina.long@credit-suisse.comuncertaintiesrelatedtothepandemic.Despiteaweakprintin1Q20,somekeyeconomicTonyWangindicatorsshowedagradualrecoveryinMarch.Chinahascomeupwithp

5、lentyofstimulustony.wang@credit-suisse.compackagestoboostconsumptionatboththecentralandlocallevels,withmoretocome.WillStephensTopicsonWeiboalsorevealinterestingtrendsinconsumerbehaviouranddemand,will.stephens@credit-suisse.comindicatingsuppressedconsumerdemandtorecover.Risingpostsforshorttours(

6、“周边游”),LokKanChanlokkan.chan@credit-suisse.com“exploringshops”(“探店”),“eyeshadow”(“眼影”)and“carpurchase”(“买车”)demonstratethatIvyJipeoplearewillingtospendselectivelyandarerespondingpositivelytostimuluspolicies.ivy.ji@credit-suisse.comE-commercespacehasseenastrongrecoveryinMarch,withMAUsonallmajorM

7、ichaelShenplatformsexceedingDec-2019’slevelamidanimpressivereboundinparcelvolumegrowth.michael.shen@credit-suisse.comDeliveryusertrafficisnowbackto75-80%ofthepre-outbreaklevel,withorderdemandJesalynWongexpectedtofullyrecoverbyMay.Airpassengeryieldisgraduallyimproving,withrevivingjesalyn.wong@cr

8、edit-suisse.comdomestictrafficfromMayalongwithstabilisingticketprices.AirportsareexpectedtoNickLibenefitfromdomesticrecovery,butweakglobaltrafficwilldragonthenon-aerosegment.nick.li.3@credit-suisse.comTravelrecoveryisalsodomesticfocused.AutosalesenjoyedasequentialimprovementinDaveYinMarchthanks

9、toafastrecoveryatthedealerlevelandshouldfurtherreboundwhenmoredave.yin@credit-suisse.comstimuluspoliciescomeout.Sportswearisstillrecoveringwithtopbrandsbetterpositioned.HuShenBaijiuwouldbethemajorbeneficiaryfromaninfrastructureFAI