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1、SARS对中国物流影响研究报告（SARSandChinaLogistics）
PartIEconomicImpacts
Introduction
TherecentoutbreakofSevereAcuteRespiratorySyndrome(SARS)hasthreatenedshort-termgrowthprospectsinAsia.Asof5May2003,SARShasinfectedmorethan6,500peopleworldwide,andcausedmountingconcern.AnumberofEastandSoutheastA
2、sianeconomies,includingPeople’sRepublicofChina(PRC);HongKong,China;Singapore;Taipei,China;andVietNamhavebeenputunderconsiderablestrain.Theepidemichasalsoaffectedothereconomies,althoughtoalesserextent.Somepositivedevelopmentsandimprovedpublichealthmeasuresinrecentweekshaveaddedweighttoargum
3、entsthat
SARS,althoughserious,willcauseonlyatemporaryshocktoeconomicgrowth.However,theimplicationsstemmingfromSARSextendbeyondtheshort-termhorizon.TheimpactofSARS,andreactionstoit,raisemanyquestions.Twoareparticularlyimportant:
(i)WhyhasattentiontoSARSbeensoprominentgivenits
relative
4、lylowmorbidityandmortality?
(ii)Howshouldgovernmentsdealwithunexpectedshocksrelatedtotheoutbreakofcontagiousdiseases?
ThisbriefassessestheeconomicimpactofSARSinanumberofEastandSoutheastAsianeconomiesandexplorestheseissues.
Short-termEconomicImpactofSARSChannelsthroughwhichtheImpac
5、tofSARSisFelt
Intheshortterm,SARSmainlyaffectseconomicgrowthbyreducingdemand:
(i)Consumerconfidencehasdramaticallydeclinedinanumberofeconomies,leadingtoasignificantreductioninprivateconsumptionspending.MuchoftheimpactstemsfromthegreatuncertaintyandfeargeneratedbySARS.Peoplehaveoptedtos
6、tayathometoreducetheprobabilityofinfection.
(ii)Serviceexports,inparticulartourism-relatedexports,havebeenhardhit.
(iii)Investmentisaffectedbyreducedoveralldemand,heighteneduncertainties,andincreasedrisks.Excesscapacitywillemergeorincrease.Furthermore,foreigninvestmentinflowmaybedelaye
7、dorreducedinreactiontoSARS.
(iv)Whileincreasedgovernmentspendingwillmitigatetheimpact,theabilityofgovernmentstoreviveeconomiesfacingwidespreadreductionsinprivatespendingislimited.AlthoughSARShasaffectedeverycomponentofaggregatedemand,privateconsumptionhaspar
