SARS对中国物流影响研究分析报告.doc

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1、SARS对中国物流阻碍研究报告（SARSandChinaLogistics）PartIEconomicImpactsIntroductionTherecentoutbreakofSevereAcuteRespiratorySyndrome(SARS)hasthreatenedshort-termgrowthprospectsinAsia.Asof5May2003,SARShasinfectedmorethan6,500peopleworldwide,andcausedmountingc

2、oncern.AnumberofEastandSoutheastAsianeconomies,includingPeople’sRepublicofChina(PRC);HongKong,China;Singapore;Taipei,China;andVietNamhavebeenputunderconsiderablestrain.Theepidemichasalsoaffectedothereconomies,althoughtoalesserextent.Somepositivedevelopm

3、entsandimprovedpublichealthmeasuresinrecentweekshaveaddedweighttoargumentsthatSARS,althoughserious,willcauseonlyatemporaryshocktoeconomicgrowth.However,theimplicationsstemmingfromSARSextendbeyondtheshort-termhorizon.TheimpactofSARS,andreactionstoit,ra

4、isemanyquestions.Twoareparticularlyimportant:(i)WhyhasattentiontoSARSbeensoprominentgivenitsrelativelylowmorbidityandmortality?(ii)Howshouldgovernmentsdealwithunexpectedshocksrelatedtotheoutbreakofcontagiousdiseases?Thisbriefassessestheeconomici

5、mpactofSARSinanumberofEastandSoutheastAsianeconomiesandexplorestheseissues.Short-termEconomicImpactofSARSChannelsthroughwhichtheImpactofSARSisFeltIntheshortterm,SARSmainlyaffectseconomicgrowthbyreducingdemand:(i)Consumerconfidencehasdramatically

6、declinedinanumberofeconomies,leadingtoasignificantreductioninprivateconsumptionspending.MuchoftheimpactstemsfromthegreatuncertaintyandfeargeneratedbySARS.Peoplehaveoptedtostayathometoreducetheprobabilityofinfection.(ii)Serviceexports,inparticulartouri

7、sm-relatedexports,havebeenhardhit.(iii)Investmentisaffectedbyreducedoveralldemand,heighteneduncertainties,andincreasedrisks.Excesscapacitywillemergeorincrease.Furthermore,foreigninvestmentinflowmaybedelayedorreducedinreactiontoSARS.(iv)Whileincrease

8、dgovernmentspendingwillmitigatetheimpact,theabilityofgovernmentstoreviveeconomiesfacingwidespreadreductionsinprivatespendingislimited.AlthoughSARShasaffectedeverycomponentofaggregatedemand,privateconsumptionhasparticularlyborneth