中国网络借贷行业：零售融资模式的转型.docx

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1、EquityResearchAsiaPacific

2、ChinaFigure1:Coveredonlinelenders:%institutionalfundingvsYTDsharepricereturn%ofloanvolumefundedbyinstitutionsVCreditQudianLexin9FPPDaiYRD110%90%70%50%30%10%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%YTDsharepricechangeNote:9Frepresentspost-IPOsharepricereturn.Closingpricesasof8Oct,2019.Sourc

3、e:Companydata■BracingforanintensifyingP2Pclean-up.WeseetwofundamentalconflictsatthecoreoftheP2Pmodel:(1)riskappetitemismatchbetweeninvestorsandborrowers,and(2)highregulatorycostvssmallsystemicimpact.WeexpectacceleratedP2Pplatformclean-upheadinginto4Q,withcontinuedroll-outofhighregulatoryhurdle

4、swhilethe‘triple-reductions’(i.e.,reductioninthenumberofplatforms,outstandingbalance,andnumberofinvestors)remaininforceforanextendedperiodoftime—likelythrough1H2020.Amajority(~98%)ofthecurrently708operatingplatformsislikelyshutdownduringthisprocess.■Pickingthebest-positionedplayersintransformi

5、ngtowardsinstitutionalfunding.Withlimitedlicensingoptionsavailablefornow,loanfacilitation(or‘assistedlending’)modelisthemostviableexitstrategyforexistingP2Ps.Despiteagenerallynegativeimpactontakerate(higherfundingcostandpotentiallylowerAPR)andoperatingmargin(highersales&marketingexpense),afast

6、erprogressintransformationtowardstheloanfacilitationmodelwillbeakeydifferentiationinloanoriginationvolumegrowth.Inthisreport,weidentifythreeareasoftheonlinelendingbusinessmostvaluedbythelicensedfinancialinstitutions:(1)customers,(2)assetquality,and(3)regulatorycompliance.LexinandQudianrankamon

7、gthebest-positionedfortransformingtowardsa2Bmodel.YirenDigitalrankslast.WeadjusttheWACCtoreflecthigherexposuretoP2P-relatedregulatoryuncertainty.■StockCalls—preferLexinandQudian.WeinitiatecoverageonLexinwithOUTPERFORM(TPofUS$17.00)and9FwithNEUTRAL(TPatUS$11.62).MaintainOUTPERFORMonQudian(TPUS$

8、11.70)andVCredit(TPHK$13.00).WeassumecoverageonPPDaiwithOUTPERFORM(TPcuttoUS$5.80fromUS$8.80).WealsoassumecoverageonYirenDigitalwithNEUTRAL(TPcuttoUS$6.92fromUS$20).Weprefer(1)Lexinforlong-termsustainability,thankstoafocusedanddifferent