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1、SeismicRiskAssessmentandLossEstimationSeismicriskassessmentandlossestimationisanessentialfirststeptoseismichazardreductionforalargestructuralinventory.Knowingtheseismicriskandpotentiallossesallowsforproperbudgetaryplanning,raisingpublicawareness,asses
2、smentandallocationofthenecessarymanpowerformitigationanddisastermanagementoperations,educatingthepublicandprofessionalsonpreparednessandmitigation,andprioritizationofretrofitapplications(EERI,1997).Componentsofseismicriskassessmentandlossestimationare
3、(1)Hazardanalysis;(2)Localsiteeffects(microzonation);(3)Exposureinformation(structuralinventory);(4)Vulnerabilityanalysis;(5)Estimationofriskandloss(Coburn,etal.,1994;CSSC,1999;ChandlerandNelson,2001;Bendimerad,2001).Thesecomponentsarebrieflydescribed
4、inthefollowingsubsections.HazardAnalysisHazardanalysisistheprocessofquantitativelyestimatingthegroundmotionatasiteorregionofinterestbasedonthecharacteristicsofsurroundingseismicsources.Thisstudyfallsprimarilywithinthedisciplinesofgeologyandseismologyw
5、ithinputfromcivilengineering(FEMA,1989).Inthisrespect,thetermseismichazardhasatechnicalmeaningrestrictedtothebehavioroftheground,apartfromanyeffectsonthebuiltenvironment.Thebasicmethodologyofhazardanalysisiscomprisedofsourcemodeling,waveattenuation,an
6、dlocalgroundamplification,whicharegraphicallyillustratedinFig.1(a).Seismichazardmaybeanalyzeddeterministicallyforascenarioearthquake,probabilistically,whichexplicitlyconsiderstheearthquakesize,location,andtimeofoccurrence,orastochasticapproachmaybetak
7、en(Kramer,1996;Marcellinietal.,2001).Probabilisticassessmentofseismichazardinvolvesdeterminingeithertheprobabilityofexceedingaspecifiedgroundmotion,orthegroundmotionthathasaspecifiedprobabilityofbeingexceededoveraparticulartimeperiod.Accordingly,outpu
8、tofthehazardanalysisiseitheracurveshowingtheexceedanceprobabilitiesofvariousgroundmotionsatasite,orahazardmapthatshowstheestimatedmagnitudedistributionofgroundmotionthathasaspecificexceedanceprobabilityoveraspecifiedtimeperiod4100'SoilAmplific
