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1、ABGlobalResearch26November2019GlobalTobaccoUBSEvidenceLabinside:smokersurveysuggestsupsidetoexpectationsforUScigarettevolumesSurveying1,000USsmokerstounderstandUSvolumedeclinesIncontextofrecordUSvolumedeclines,thereissignificantdebateinthemarketaboutthecause–isitpriceincreases,e-ciga
2、rettes,orsomethingelse?Weusethe4thUBSEvidenceLabsurveyof1,000UStobaccouserstoshedlightontheissue.Wealsocoverpriceelasticity,discountbrandtraction,consumerresponsetoamentholban,andbrandequity.Inourview,thesurveysupportstheperspectivethatrecente-cigarettecategoryweaknessmeanscigarettevo
3、lumescanoutperformAltria's4-6%guidancerangenextyear,andthemarketcansupportcurrentlevelsofpricingifitneedsto.NoevidencehereofincreasingcigarettepriceelasticityThereissignificantdebateaboutwhatisdrivingthevolumedeclinesandwhetherpriceelasticityhasincreased.VersusthelastsurveyinDecember2
4、017,wefindnoevidencetoindicatethatpriceelasticityhaschanged(Altriasayitis-0.3).Furthermore,theimportanceplacedonpricebyconsumersappearstohavestabilised,anddiscountbrandshavefailedtogainawareness,reducingdownsidetopriceincreases.Surveysayse-cigaretteshaveimpactedvolumesbutnotbehaviourF
5、urthermore,ouranalysisindicatesthate-cigaretteshavebeenakeydriverofvolumedeclinesoverthelast2years,whichisconsistentwithourlatestquantmodel.Ifthisisthecase,italsomeansonecouldexpectimprovedvolumesnextyearife-cigarettesalescontinuetofall/donotgrow.Furthermore,inourviewthesurveyrevealst
6、hatdualusersofe-cigarettesarefundamentallydifferentconsumerstoexclusivecigarettesmokers.Theyplacelessimportanceonprice,arelesslikelytoswitch,andarefarmorelikelytoshoparound,evenwhencontrollingforage.Wethereforetentativelyconcludee-cigarettesarenothavinganimpactoncigarettepriceelastici
7、ty–theyarejustappealingtodifferentconsumers.PositivereadforthetobaccocompaniesTheindustrylevelresultsarepositiveforMO,BATandIMB;3-4%volumedeclinesand2019levelsofpricingwouldbeamaterialtailwindtoearnings.Fromanetpromoterscoreperspective,Imperial'sbrandshaveimprovedthemostsinceourlastsu
8、rvey.
