trade and growth：still disagreement about the relationships

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1、TRADEANDGROWTH：STILLDISAGREEMENTABOUTTHERELATIONSHIPSUnclassifiedECO/WKP(2000)37OrganisationdeCoop??rationetde9><>D??veloppementEconomiquesOLIS:12-Oct-2000OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentDist.:20-Oct-2000____________________________________________________________________

2、______________________EnglishtextonlyECONOMICSDEPARTMENTTRADEANDGROWTH:STILLDISAGREEMENTABOUTTHERELATIONSHIPSECONOMICSDEPARTMENTWORKINGPAPERSNO.264byRobertE.BaldwinMostEconomicsDepartmentWorkingPapersbeginningwithNo.144arenowavailablethroughOECDsInternetWebsiteat//ww.oecd.org/eco/eco.9661

3、7DocumentcompletdisponiblesurOLISdanssonformat<>dorigineCompletedocumentavailableonOLISinitsoriginalformatECO/WKP(2000)37EnglishtextonlyUnclassifiedECO/WKP(2000)37ABSTRACT/RSUMTherelationshipsbetweentradeandgrowthhavelongbeenasubjectofconsiderablecontroversyamongeconomists.Intheearlypost-

4、WorldWarIIperiod,manyeconomicleadersconcludedthatprotectivetradepoliciesstimulatedgrowth,andimportsubstitutionpolicieswerewidelyadoptedbydevelopingcountries.Bythe1980s,however,country-specificandgeneralcross-countryanalyseshaddemonstratedthefailureoftheimportsubstitutionapproach,andconseq

5、uentlyexport-orientedpolicieswerewidelyadopted.Whilesubsequentcross-countrystudieshavegenerallyindicatedthegrowtheffectivenessofoutward-lookingpolicies,recentcriticismsofthesestudies(byRodriguezandRodrik,1999,inparticular)havecalledthisconclusionintoquestion.JELclassification:F13,F43,O19K

6、eywords:Tradeandgrowth;Tradepolicy,economicdevelopment.****Lesrelationsentrelecommerceetlacroissanceont??t??depuislongtempssujetcontroverseparmiles??conomistes.Durantlap??riodequiasuiviladeuxi??meguerremondiale,beaucoupdeleadersdansledomainedel??conomieconcluaientquelespolitiquescommercia

7、lesprotectionnistes??taientstimulantespourlacroissance,etquedespolitiquesdesubstitutiondelimportation??taientlargementenvigueurdanslespays<>d??velopp??s.Aucoursdesann??es80,cependant,lesanalysesnationalesetinternationalesontd??montr??linefficacit??delapprochedesubsi