对人民币汇率问题的一些探讨

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1、对人民币汇率问题的一些探讨2004年5月，中国人民大学汪涛OverviewReasonsforfocusontheRMBexchangerateEvolutionofChina’sRealEffectiveExchangeRateEstimationof“equilibrium”exchangerateSourcesoftherealexchangeratevariationsEdium-termImplicationsWhytheHypeonRMBExchangeRate?Recentdevelopments:RapidexportgrowthIncreasingbilateraltra

2、desurpluswiththeU.S.RapidreserveaccumulationReactionfromsome:ExchangeratevaluationChina’srapidlyexpandinginternationaltradeChina’stradehasincreasedmorerapidlythaninternationaltradeforasustainedperiod(15percentperyear,comparedto7percentforworldtrade)Whileimpressive,thepaceofthisgrowthisnotunprecede

3、ntedChina’srapidtradegrowthhasbeenfacilitatedbytradereformandWTOaccessionSubstantialtariffreductionsoveralongperiodoftimeWTOagreementleadtofundamentalopeningofChina’sgoods,services,andagricultureOthercountrieshaveshiftedfinalstageofproductintoChinaThishasalsofundamentallyalteredbilateraltradebalan

4、cesgloballyWhileChina’stradesurpluswiththeUSandEUhasbeenincreasing,thetradedeficitwiththerestofAsiahasalsobeenincreasingChina:ADecompositionoftheRecentReserveBuildup(InbillionsofU.S.dollars)AverageAverageChange1998-20002001-2003(1)(2)(2)-(1)Foreignreserveincrease8.580.071.5Currentaccountbalance22.

5、632.910.3Capitalaccountbalance1.140.038.9FDI,net38.543.85.3Errorsandomissions,net-15.17.122.3Non-FDIcapitalaccountbalance(includingerrorsandomissions)-52.53.355.9HowDoWeGoAboutAnalyzingtheExchangeRate?SomepeoplesayRMBisundervaluedBigMacapproachRelativePPPapproachBalanceofPaymentapproachHowDoWeGoAb

6、outAnalyzingtheExchangeRate?EvolutionofREEREstimationusinganextendedrelativePPPMacroeconomicbalanceapproachSourcesoffluctuation–structuralVARDeterminantsofMedium-termRealExchangeRate–theExtendedRelative-PPPApproachExtendedrelativePPPapproachrelativeproductivityoftradedandnon-tradedgoodssector;Netf

7、oreignassetsOpenness[Similartobehavioralequilibriumexchangerateapproach(reduced-formmodel,Zhang,Z.2001,Zhang,X.2002)]Estimatethelong-runrelationshipbetweenexchangerateandthefundamentalsREER=-0.42+1.12*TNT+0.9*NFA