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1、Unit6RisksUsefulInformationRiskistheprobabilityoflosingsomethingofvalue.Sincewevaluelifeaboveotherthings,thegreatestriskformostpeopleistheriskofdeath•Yetlifeitself,tothebestofourknowledge,isultimatelylimited.Thekeywordhereis"ultimately^.Sincewehopetolivealotlonger,weeasilyo
2、verlooktheroutineandlong-rangerisksassociatedwithbeinghuman,andconcentrateinsteadonothersortsofrisks.Werarelythinkaboutthechancesofdeath,disability,ordisaster,ortrytopredictthetimesoftheiroccunence.Walkingacrossthestreetinmanycitiesismoredangerousthanridinganairplaneacrossa
3、nocean,butmanypeoplegivenothoughttotheformerandhavegreatfearofthelatter.Peopleeagerlydodangerousthingsforrecreationthattheywouldrarelydoatwork,suchasscalingasteepmountainorskiingrapidlydownit.Youngpeopleareespeciallywillingtotakefoolishchancesforthesheerjoyofdoingso,orbecau
4、setheydiscounttheprobabilityofadverseoutcomes.Yettheyshouldprobablybemuchmorecarefulthantheirelders,sincetheyhavelongerlifeexpectanciesremainingandthushavemoreatstake・Otherthingswevalueincludehealth,safety,money,property,relationshipsandhappiness.Therearerisksattachedtothel
5、ossofanyofthese.Hypochondriacsexaggeratetherisksofillhealthorinjury.Ironicallytheprecautionstakentopromotehealthandsafetymayaddtoahypochondriac'sperceptionoftherisksinvolved•Awiseinvestortakescalculatedriskswithmoney,andtriestochoosereasonablerisksoverunreasonableones・Acomp
6、ulsivegambler,ontheotherhand,issoaddictedtoriskthatthereislittlethoughtofthelossthatinevitablyfollowsfromgamblingindefinitelyagainsttheodds・Soriskitselfmayattimesbeperceivedasareward・Optimistsandpessimistshaveoppositeattitudestowardrisk.Extremeoptimistsalwaysexpectthebest.T
7、hereforetheytrytomaximizegain.Morecautiousoptimistsmaytrytomaximizetheminimumgain.Extremepessimistsalwaysexpecttheworst.Thereforetheycometoexpectthemaximumloss.Moremoderatepessimistsmaytrytomaximizetheminimumloss.Thescienceofcost-benefitanalysisstudiestheseandotherstrategie
8、sformanagingrisk.Sodoesactuarialscience（保险计算科学），withspecialemphasisontherisksofdea
