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1、Unit6RisksUsefulInformationRiskistheprobabilityoflosingsomethingofvalue.Sincewevaluelifeaboveotherthings,thegreatestriskformostpeopleistheriskofdeath.Yetlifeitself,tothebestofourknowledge,isultimatelylimited.Thekeywordhereis“ultimately”.Sincewehopetolivealotlonger,weeasil
2、yoverlooktheroutineandlong-rangerisksassociatedwithbeinghuman,andconcentrateinsteadonothersortsofrisks.Werarelythinkaboutthechancesofdeath,disability,ordisaster,ortrytopredictthetimesoftheiroccurrence.Walkingacrossthestreetinmanycitiesismoredangerousthanridinganairplaneac
3、rossanocean,butmanypeoplegivenothoughttotheformerandhavegreatfearofthelatter.Peopleeagerlydodangerousthingsforrecreationthattheywouldrarelydoatwork,suchasscalingasteepmountainorskiingrapidlydownit.Youngpeopleareespeciallywillingtotakefoolishchancesforthesheerjoyofdoingso,
4、orbecausetheydiscounttheprobabilityofadverseoutcomes.Yettheyshouldprobablybemuchmorecarefulthantheirelders,sincetheyhavelongerlifeexpectanciesremainingandthushavemoreatstake.Otherthingswevalueincludehealth,safety,money,property,relationshipsandhappiness.Therearerisksattac
5、hedtothelossofanyofthese.Hypochondriacsexaggeratetherisksofillhealthorinjury.Ironicallytheprecautionstakentopromotehealthandsafetymayaddtoahypochondriac’sperceptionoftherisksinvolved.Awiseinvestortakescalculatedriskswithmoney,andtriestochoosereasonablerisksoverunreasonabl
6、eones.Acompulsivegambler,ontheotherhand,issoaddictedtoriskthatthereislittlethoughtofthelossthatinevitablyfollowsfromgamblingindefinitelyagainsttheodds.Soriskitselfmayattimesbeperceivedasareward.Optimistsandpessimistshaveoppositeattitudestowardrisk.Extremeoptimistsalwaysex
7、pectthebest.Thereforetheytrytomaximizegain.Morecautiousoptimistsmaytrytomaximizetheminimumgain.Extremepessimistsalwaysexpecttheworst.Thereforetheycometoexpectthemaximumloss.Moremoderatepessimistsmaytrytomaximizetheminimumloss.Thescienceofcost-benefitanalysisstudiesthesean
8、dotherstrategiesformanagingrisk.Sodoesactuarialscience(保险计算科学),withspecialemphasisontherisksofde
