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ID:40380974
大小:655.51 KB
页数:14页
时间:2019-08-01
《Bayesian Calibration of Slope Failure Probability》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、BayesianCalibrationofSlopeFailureProbabilityRaymondW.M.CheungI,WilsonH.Tang2ABSTRACTAlimitationofreliabilityapproachtoslopesafetyhasbeenthatreliabilityevaluationyieldsonlynotionalprobabilityoffailure.Itwouldbedesirableiftheassessednotionalprobabilitycanbeindeedcalibratedtotherealpr
2、obabilityoffailure.Inthisway,landslideriskcouldbemanagedwithconfidenceandchoicesamongalternativeoptionscouldbemademoredefensible.ThispaperproposesacalibrationprocedurebasedontheBayesianapproach.Itwillfirstintegratetheanalyticallyassessedfailureprobabilitiesofalargesetofsoilslopesin
3、HongKongwiththecorrespondingobservedperformancesofthesesoilslopes.Bothfailedandunfailedslopeswereusedinthecalibrationprocess.Throughthisexercise,thereliabilityassessedforagivenslopeinHongKongwithsimilarsoilmaterialtothoseusedinthecalibrationstudycanbecalibratedtoarealisticreliabili
4、tymeasure.INTRODUCTIONReliabilityofaslopeisconventionallyassessedthroughdeterministicfactorofsafetyapproach.Inthisapproachthefactorofsafety(FS)ofaSlopeisdeterminedfromanacceptableslopestabilityanalysismethodcoupledwithanassessedporewaterpressuredistributionandsoilstrengthparameters
5、thatareestimatedfromthesoiltestsconducted.ThevalueofFShastomeetarequiredminimumFSwhichhasbeenprescribedbypriorexperienceandprofessionaljudgment.However,ithasbeenshownthatslopeswithsamefactorofsafetymayexhibitdifferentprobabilityoffailure.Thisdiscrepancyisnotunexpectedasthefailurepr
6、obabilitywouldbeinfluencedbytheuncertaintyinthegroundcondition,extentofsiteexplorationandlaboratorytestingefforts,andthechoiceofsoilparameters.Hence,asanalternativetotheconventionalapproach,probabilisticapproachisdevelopedwhichattemptstosystematicallytreattheuncertaintiesintheevalu
7、ationofthereliabilityofaslope.Aprobabilisticmodelisformulatedforthestabilityoftheslopeonthebasisofaconventionalslopestabilitycomputationmodel,supplementedwithastatisticalDownloadedfromascelibrary.orgbySHENYANGJIANZHUUNIVERSITYon11/12/13.CopyrightASCE.Forpersonaluseonly;allrightsres
8、erved.GeotechnicalEngineer
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