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1、GlobalResearchHighlightsInvestmentStrategyGlobal25February2011OilandinflationJosephZidle+16468555854StrategistMLPF&S¢Higheroilcausesriskassetpullbackjoseph.zidle@baml.comThisweekmarkedthefirsttimerecentunrestintheMiddleEasthasspreadtoaSophieGuité+16468552449Strategist
2、majoroilproducingnation.AsturmoilescalatedinLibya,whichhasthelargestMLPF&SprovenoilreservesinAfrica,oilpricesjumpedover8%thisweek,withWTIsophie.guite@baml.comreaching$97/bblbyThursdayandBrentreaching$111/bbl.InvestorssoughtSwathiPutcha+16467430198refugeinsafehavenasse
3、tssuchasTreasuriesandgold,fleeingriskierequities.StrategistMLPF&Sswathi.putcha@baml.comOil:keylevelstowatchInvestmentStrategyAverageoilpricesof$115/bblin2011and$130/bblin2012representkeytriggerMLPF&Spointsthatwouldputtheglobaleconomyatrisk.Inthefullversionofthereporto
4、npage4,CommodityStrategistFranciscoBlanchliststhehighesttolerableoilpriceforkeycountriesandregions.Willoilreachthesekeytriggerpoints?Blanchthinksnot.Hemaintainshis$87/bblaveragetargetforWTIcrudeoilin2011.Butfromatechnicalperspective,therecentbreakoutsupportsthecasefor
5、near-termupsideto$103-104/bbl,withthenextlevelofresistanceat$120(Suttmeier,p.5).ImpactofhigheroilpricesonequitiesIntheabsenceunrestspreadingtoSaudiArabia,ChiefGlobalEquityStrategistMichaelHartnettbelievesthethreeP’s:Policy,Positioning,andProfitsstillmakeequitiesthe201
6、1assetclassofchoice.But79%ofLibya’soilexportsgototheEU,andonp.6EuropeanEquityStrategistGaryBakeranalyzessectorperformanceduringpastoilpriceshocks.Hefindsthatthethreebestperformershavebeenmining,oil&gas,andPCsoftware/services,whiletheworsthavebeenautos,leisuregoods,and
7、travel.ForoverviewsbyourfundamentalequityanalystsontheimpactofMiddleEastturmoilonUSsectors:seepage11foroil&Clicktheimageabovetowatchthevideogasandpage12foraerospace&defense.Thisweekinmarkets2TakingupinflationforecastsHighercommoditypricesandstrongerG7growthhaveprompte
8、dupgradestoourTopmacroreportsoftheweek2011inflationforecastsintheUSandemergingmarkets(EM).IntheUS,HeadGEMsPaper#3-TurkerHamz
