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1、THISREPORTCONTAINSASSESSMENTSOFCOMMODITYANDTRADEISSUESMADEBYUSDASTAFFANDNOTNECESSARILYSTATEMENTSOFOFFICIALU.S.GOVERNMENTPOLICYRequiredReport-publicdistributionDate:2/27/2012GAINReportNumber:12017China-PeoplesRepublicofLivestockandProductsSemi-annualApprovedBy:LauraScandurraPrepar
2、edBy:RyanR.ScottandZhangJianpingReportHighlights:TheOfficeofAgriculturalAffairsinBeijing(OAA/Beijing)revisedthe2012forecastforChina’sbeefproductionupwardby24,000metrictons(MT),carcassweightequivalent(CWE),to5.5millionmetrictons(MMT).Theincreasereflectsfewerthanexpectedoutbreaksof
3、footandmouthdisease(FMD),aswellashigherslaughterweights,whichweredrivenbyimprovedfeedquality.Cattleexportsareexpectedtoincrease13percentto33,000head,largelyduetogrowingdemandfromslaughterfacilitiesinHongKongandMacau.Therevisedforecastforporkproductionis51.6MMT,anominalincreasefro
4、mtheinitial2012estimateof51.2MMT.Theporkimportestimateremainsunchangedandimportsarestillexpectedtofall26percentto560,000MT.China’srisingporkproductionandlowerdomesticpricesin2012areexpectedtolimitimports.TheswineimportestimateremainsunchangedbecauseChina’snewimportpolicycouldhind
5、ertrade.Cattle/Beef:AnimalNumbers,Cattle201020112012MarketYear:JanUSDANewPostUSDANewPostUSDANewPostTotalCattleBeg.Stks105,430105,430104,814104,814103,944104,322(1000HEAD)DairyCowsBeg.Stocks12,60312,60312,96012,96013,29013,350(1000HEAD)BeefCowsBeg.Stocks47,00047,00046,48046,48046,
6、20046,250(1000HEAD)Production(CalfCrop)41,50041,50040,90040,90040,70040,950(1000HEAD)TotalImports8585959010097(1000HEAD)TotalSupply147,015147,015145,809145,804144,644145,369(1000HEAD)TotalExports363630322933(1000HEAD)CowSlaughter000000(1000HEAD)CalfSlaughter000000(1000HEAD)OtherS
7、laughter41,17041,17040,85040,85040,55640,603(1000HEAD)TotalSlaughter41,17041,17040,85040,85040,55640,603(1000HEAD)Loss995995985600800550(1000HEAD)EndingInventories104,814104,814103,944104,322103,259104,183(1000HEAD)TotalDistribution147,015147,015145,809145,804144,644145,369(1000H
8、EAD)CYImp.fromU.S.000000(1000HEAD)CY.Exp