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1、MacroeconomicPrioritiesRobertE.Lucas,Jr.∗January10,2003Macroeconomicswasbornasadistinctfieldinthe1940s,asapartoftheintellectualresponsetotheGreatDepression.Thetermthenreferredtothebodyofknowledgeandexpertisethatwehopedwouldpreventtherecurrenceofthateconomicdisaster.Mythesis
2、inthislectureisthatmacroeconomicsinthisoriginalsensehassucceeded:Itscentralproblemofdepression-preventionhasbeensolved,forallpracticalpurposes,andhasinfactbeensolvedformanydecades.Thereremainimportantgainsinwelfarefrombetterfiscalpolicies,butIarguethatthesearegainsfromprovi
3、dingpeoplewithbetterincentivestoworkandtosave,notfrombetterfinetuningofspendingflows.TakingU.S.performanceoverthepast50yearsasabenchmark,thepotentialforwelfaregainsfrombetterlong-run,supplysidepoliciesexceedsbyfarthepotentialfromfurtherimprovementsinshort-rundemandmanagement
4、.Myplanistoreviewthetheoryandevidenceleadingtothisconclusion.SectionIoutlinesthegenerallogicofquantitativewelfareanalysis,inwhichpolicycomparisons∗DepartmentofEconomics,TheUniversityofChicago,1126East59thStreet,Chicago,IL60637.IamgratefulfordiscussionswithFernandoAlvarez,G
5、adiBarlevy,LarsHansen,PerKrusell,EllenMcGrattan,ChrisPhelan,EdwardPrescott,EstebanRossi-Hansberg,TomSargent,MatthewShapiro,TonySmith,NancyStokeyandTomTallarini,andfortheableassistanceofAdrianKatsandMikhailGolosov.1arereducedtodifferencesperceivedandvaluedbyindividuals.Itals
6、oprovidesabriefreviewofsomeexamples–examplesthatwillbefamiliartomany–ofchangesinlongrunmonetaryandfiscalpoliciesthatconsumerswouldviewasequivalenttoincreasesof5-15percentintheiroverallconsumptionlevels.SectionIIdescribesathought-experimentinwhichasingleconsumerismagicallyre
7、lievedofallconsumptionvariabilityabouttrend.Howmuchaverageconsumptionwouldhebewillingtogiveupinreturn?Aboutone-halfofone-tenthofapercent,Icalculate.Iwilldefendthisestimateasgivingtherightorderofmagnitudeofthepotentialgaintosocietyfromimprovedstabilizationpolicies,buttodoth
8、is,manyquestionsneedtobeaddressed.Howmuchofaggregateconsumptionvariabilityshouldbevieweda
