The 2014 Retail Banking Radar- Cold Front Dissipating

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1、The2014RetailBankingRadarColdFrontDissipatingRetailbankswillnotturnaroundquickly.EvenasEurope’seconomicrecoverybegins,bankshesitatetotacklethemassivechangeahead.Successwillrequiresmartstrategiesinvitalareas—distribution,digitization,andcostefficiency.The2014RetailB

2、ankingRadar:ColdFrontDissipating1Inmid-2013,Europe’seconomyfinallyseemedtoturnthecorner.Aslow,fragilerecoverysetin,withGDPexpandingatamoderate0.2percentquarterlyrate.Unemployment—stillhighat11.8percentintheeurozone—stoppedrising.Consumerpriceinflationbegantrendingd

3、ownwardonthebackoffallingenergyprices.AllforecastsforEurope’seconomyarepointingup,andlong-termrecovery,whilenotwithinimmediatereach,seemsmorerealisticthanithasinfiveyears.Theretailbankingsectorisseeingamilduptickaswell.Ratesofsavingsremainhighandpersonaldepositsros

4、eagainamidlingeringeconomicvolatilityinearly2013,yetthepacewasslowerthanintherecentpast.Loanvolumesdeclinedslightlybelow2012levels.Europe’sretailbanksachievedsmallincomeincreasescomparedto2012,drivenmorebyfeesthanbyincreasesinnetinterestincome.1Profitabilityrebound

5、edto€127perclientasriskprovisionsdeclined,especiallyinSpainandselectEasternEuropeancountries.Still,profitmarginsremainwellbelowthepre-crisismarkofmorethan30percent(seefigure1).FigureRetailbanksincomesarebacktopre-crisislevels,butproitsarestilldepressedbyriskprovi

6、sionsWesternEuropeEasternEurope(=)(=)TotalincomeOperatingexpensesRiskprovisions–Othernon-–operatingexpensesProfitbeforetax

7、Source:A.T.KearneyRetailBankingRadarRetailbankingwasmarkedbytwointerestingdevelopmentsin2013,bothrelatedtocosts.2First,theretailbanksinoursamplecontinuedtheirheadcountreductions,sheddingapproximatelyanadditional1.5percentoftheworkforce.Over

8、thepastsixyears,accordingtoEuropeanCentralBankstatistics,thebankingsectorinEuropehascutmorethan250,000jobs—or7percentofitsworkforce—whichhasledto