案例分析—中国财政收入模型

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1、DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/16/14Time:19:41Sample:19782012Includedobservations:35VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.  C-3348.918848.4344-3.9471740.0004X0.2145080.00470645.579420.0000R-squared0.984364    Meandependentvar21015.69AdjustedR-squared0.98

2、3890    S.D.dependentvar30709.83S.E.ofregression3897.858    Akaikeinfocriterion19.42969Sumsquaredresid5.01E+08    Schwarzcriterion19.51856Loglikelihood-338.0195    F-statistic2077.483Durbin-Watsonstat0.122825    Prob(F-statistic)0.000000图1回归结果图2剩余项、实际值、拟合值图形图3散点图图4趋势图WhiteHe

3、teroskedasticityTest:F-statistic10.08252    Probability0.000402Obs*R-squared13.52968    Probability0.001154TestEquation:DependentVariable:RESID^2Method:LeastSquaresDate:12/16/14Time:19:49Sample:19782012Includedobservations:35VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.  C131

4、219673129007.4.1936530.0002X-67.3631147.03735-1.4321190.1618X^20.0002720.0001022.6618060.0121R-squared0.386562    Meandependentvar14325106AdjustedR-squared0.348223    S.D.dependentvar14715600S.E.ofregression11880307    Akaikeinfocriterion35.50048Sumsquaredresid4.52E+15    Sc

5、hwarzcriterion35.63379Loglikelihood-618.2584    F-statistic10.08252Durbin-Watsonstat0.689279    Prob(F-statistic)0.000402图5White检验结果由图5可知，当取时，，由于,同时p值为0.001154，小于0.05的显著性水平，表明模型中存在异方差性。表1国内生产总值及财政收入单位：亿元年份财政收入Y国内生产总值X19781132.263645.2019791146.384062.6019801159.934545.601081

6、1175.794891.6010821212.335323.4019831366.955962.7019841642.867208.1019852004.829016.0019862122.0110275.1719872199.3512058.6119882357.2415042.8219892664.9016992.3219902937.1018667.8219913149.4821781.4919923483.3726923.4719934348.9535333.9219945218.1048197.8519956242.2060793.7

7、219967407.9971176.5919978651.1478973.0319989875.9584402.27199911444.0889677.05200013395.2399214.55200116386.04109655.17200218903.64120332.68200321715.25135822.75200426396.47159878.33200531649.29184937.40200638760.20216314.40200751321.78265810.30200861330.35314045.40200968518

8、.30340902.80201083101.51401512.802011103874.43473104.002012117253.52518942.