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1、Theworldchangewithreallyremarkable(卓越的)speed.Ifyoulookatthechartatthetophere,you'llseethatin2025,theseGoldmanSachsprojectionssuggestthattheChineseeconomywillbealmostthesamesizeastheAmericaneconomy.Andyoulookatthechartfor2050,it'sprojected(投射的)thattheChi
2、neseeconomywillbetwicethesizeoftheAmericaneconomy,andtheIndianeconomywillbealmostthesamesizeastheAmericaneconomy.AndweshouldbearinmindherethattheseprojectionweredrawnupbeforetheWesternfinancialcrisis.Acoupleofweeksago,IwaslookingatthelatestprojectionbyB
3、NPParibasforwhenChinawillhavealargereconomythantheUnitedStates.GoldmanSachsprojected2027.Thepost-crisisprojectionis2020.That'sjustadecadeaway.Chinaisgoingtochangetheworldintwofundamental(基本的)respects.Firstofall,it'sahugedevelopingcountrywiththepopulatio
4、nof1.3billionpeople,whichhasbeengrowingforover30yearsataround10percentayear.Andwithinadecade,itwillhavethelargesteconomyintheworld.Neverbeforeinthemodernerahasthelargesteconomyintheworldbeenthatofadevelopingcountry,ratherthanadevelopedcountry.Secondly,f
5、orthefirsttimeinthemodernera,thedominant(占优势的;统治的)countryintheworld--whichIthinkiswhatChinawillbecomewillbacknotfromtheWestandfromvery,verydifferentcivilizationalroots(根;根源).NowIknowit'sawidespreadassumptionintheWestthat,ascountriesmodernize(使...现代化),th
6、eyalsoWesternize(使西洋化).Thisisaillusion(幻觉;错觉;错误的观点).It'sanassumptionthatmodernity(现代性;现代的东西)isaproductsimplyofcompetition,marketsandtechnology.Itisnot;itisalsoshapedequallybyhistoryandculture.ChinaisnotliketheWest,anditwillnotbecomeliketheWest.Itwillrem
7、aininveryfundamentalrespectsverydifferent.Nowbigquestionhereisobviously,howdowemakesenseofChina?HowdowetrytounderstandwhatChinais?AndtheproblemwehaveintheWestatthemomentby-and-large(大体上;总的来说)isthattheconventional(传统的)approachisthatweunderstanditreallyin
8、Westernterms,usingWesternideas.Wecan't.NowIwanttoofferyouthreebuildingblocksfortryingtounderstandwhatChinaislike--justasabeginnning.Thefirstisthis,thatChinaisnotreallyanationstate.Okay,it'scalleditselfanationstateforthelasthundre