价格形态百科-楔形(2)

《价格形态百科-楔形(2)》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在教育资源-天天文库。

1、44、Wedges,FallingRESULTSSNAPSHOTAppearanceAdownwardpricetrendboundedbytwointersecting,down-slopingtrendlines.ReversalOrConsolidationShort-term(upto3months)bullishconsolidationFailureRate10%FailureRateifwaitedforbreakout2%AverageRise43%,withmostlikelyri

2、sebetween20%and30%VolumeTrendDownwardPrematureBreakout27%Throwbacks47%Percentagemeetingpredictedpricetarget88%SurprisingFindingThemostpowerfulbreakoutsoccurbetween50%and80%ofthedistancetotheapex(centeredaround65%).SeealsoPennantsTherearenooutstandingsu

3、rprisesamongthestatisticsshownintheResultsSnapshot.Thefailurerateforfallingwedgesislowat10%.Thislowfailurerate,coupledwithanaverageriseof43%andalikelyriseofbetween20%and30%,suggestsitisaprofitableformationtotrade.However,itisalsoquiterare.Thepercentage

4、offallingwedgesmeetingthepredictedpricetarget,at88%,isveryhighbutthenthebenchmarkiseasy.Pricesneedonlyriseabovethetopoftheformationtohitthetarget.Mystatisticsshowthemostpowerfulbreakoutsoccurat50%to80%ofthedistancetotheapex(thecenterofthisrangebeingtwo

5、-thirdsofthewaytotheapex).Bypowerful,Imeanthatstocksfallingwithintherangeshowlargergains,onaverage.数据快照里没有什么令人惊异的统计数据。失败率只有10%。如此低的失败率，而平均涨幅达到43%(最可能是20%到30%)，下降楔形是一个可获利的交易形态。然而，它又很少出现。？？？。TourFigure44.1showsafallingwedge.PricesbegandeclininginJanuary1

6、992fromahighof75Ktothewedgestartat52'/4.Pricesrecoveredsomewhat—aretraceinadowntrend—roundedoverandheadedlower.PricestaggedanewlowinlateJulyandbouncedupwardagain.Thistime,theupwardmomentumdidnotcarryquiteasfarasbefore.Anotherupanddownoscillationoccurre

7、dduringmid-Augustjustbeforepricesfinallyreachedanewlow.Ifyoudrawatrendlinealongthebottomoftheminorlowsandanotheralongthetops,youseethefamiliarshapeofafallingwedge.Fallingwedgesarerareformationsthathavepricemovementsboundedbytwodown-slopingtrendlines.Wh

8、endrawnonthechart,thepicturelookslikeawedgetilteddownward.图44.1展示了一个下降楔形。1992年1月开始，价格从75K起开始下降。到521/4时价格开始反弹-下降趋势中的反弹-反弹上去形成略低的头部。价格在七月底创新低之后反弹回去。这次，上行运动没有上次持久。八月中旬，再次上下的波动价格最终创出新低。分别绘出高点和低点的连线，可以看到一个熟悉的下降楔形。下降楔形是个少见的形态，价格运动在两条下行趋势线之间往复