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1、UnlockingtheClimatePuzzle解开气候之谜(1)Lifehasprosperedonthisplanetfornearlyfourbillionyears.Inthattime,climatehadfluctuateddrastically,fromiceageslastingtensofthousandsofyearstoepochsofsteamyheat.Witheachchange,sundryspecieshavebenefitedandflourished.Othersadapted,faltered,ordied.Now,manyex
2、pertsbelieve,humansareimperilingtheirownecologicalnichewiththethreatofglobalwarming.Thevaporousby-productsofcivilization,intheformofgreenhousegasessuchascarbondioxide(C0₂),havetrappedenoughheatintheatmospheretoraiseEarth'saveragesurfaceairtemperatureahalfdegreeCelsius(onedegreeFahrenhei
3、t)duringthiscentury.Ifthetrendcontinues,itcouldalterclimatepatternsworldwide-thawingglaciers,boostingsealevel,scorchingplainsintodeserts,andshiftingvegetationzones.(1)生命在这个星球上已经发展了近四十亿年。在这段时间里,气候有大幅波动,从冰河时代到蒸汽时代延续了几千年。每一次改变,各种物种受益和繁荣。其他适应,步履蹒跚,或死亡。现在,许多专家认为,人类正在通过全球变暖危及自己的生态位。在本世纪,文明的气态
4、副产物,以二氧化碳(C0₂)等温室气体的形式,把足够的热量困在大气中,来提高地球表面平均气温半摄氏度(1华氏度)。如果这种趋势继续下去,它可能会改变世界范围内的气候模式—融化冰川,提高海平面,把平原烤成沙漠,以及改变植被区。(2)Oritmightnot.Globalclimatedependsoncombinationsoffactorsinteractinginsubtleandcomplexwaysthatwedonotyetfullyunderstand.Itispossiblethatthewarmingobservedduringthiscenturyma
5、yhaveresultedfromnaturalvariations,eventhoughtheincreasehasbeenmuchmorerapidthanwhattheplanethaswitnessedoverthepasthundredcenturies.Moreover,thesupercomputersimulationsusedtoprojectfutureconditionsmaynotbeaccurate.(2)或者不可能。全球气候取决于各种因素的组合,这些因素以微妙和复杂的方式相互作用,我们还没有完全了解。这是可能的,在本世纪中观察到的变暖可能是
6、由于自然的变化,即使增加已远远超过这个星球在过去的几百个世纪已经见证过的。此外,用于展现未来条件的超级计算机模拟可能是不准确的。(3)Nonetheless,in1995,afteryearsofintensestudy,theIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),sponsoredbytheUnitedNations,concludedtentativelythat"thebalanceofevidencesuggeststhatthereisadiscerniblehumaninfluenceonglobalcli
7、mate".Theamountofthatinfluence,thegroupnoted,isunknownbecauseof"uncertaintiesinkeyfactors",includingthedegreetowhichcloudsandtheoceansaffecttherateoftemperaturechange.Itmaytakeadecadeormoreofadditionalresearchtoresolvethoseuncertainties.(3)然而,由联合国发起的政府间气候变化专门委员会,经过数年集中的研究,在1995