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1、Unite6RiskandreturnWisdomDon’tputallyoureggsinonebasket.——Anonymous不要把鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里。Myventuresarenotinonebottomtrusted，nottooneplace,norismywholeestateuponthefortuneofthispresentyears;Therefore,mymerchandisemakesmenotsad.——Shakespear,MerchantofVenice我的买卖的成败并不完全寄托在一艘船上
2、，更不是倚赖着一处地方；我的全部财产，也不会因为这一年的盈亏而受到影响，所以我的货物并不能使我忧愁。Heisthepartofwisemantokeephimselftodayfortomorrow,andnotventureallhiseggsinonebasket.——Cervantes,DonQuixote他是智者中的一员，为明天而在今天保存自己，不会冒险把鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里。Thereasonwhycorporationsdonotentergambleswithvolatilepayoffsandsmallpos
3、itiveexpectedreturnsisthatmanagersknowthatgenerallyvolatilitymatters.——ReneM.Stulz一些企业之所以没有涉足到一些带有极大不确定性回报和预期收益很小的类似赌博似的业务中，是因为经理人知道极大的不确定性是存在的。WisdomMinicaseFormanypeopleitisquiteacceptabletorisk$20everyweekinthelottery,inviewofpotentialreturnsofhundredsofthousand
4、s(orevenmillions)ofdollars.Whenyoubuyalotteryticket,theriskoflosingyour$20isveryhigh(howoftenhaveyouwonanythingatlotto).Howmuchyouwillbewillingtorisk,givenasetprobabilityofwinningorlosing,dependsonyourcharacter——youmaybearisk-loveroryoumayberisk-averse.Wordsstudy1.
5、Portfolio组合Portfoliorisk投资组合风险Thereisanimportantdifferencebetweenstand-aloneandportfoliorisk,andanassetthathasagreatdealofriskifheldbyitselfmaybemuchlessriskyifitisheldaspartoflargerportfolio.2.Diversifiablerisk可分散风险Inaportfoliocontext,anasset’sriskcanbedividedinto
6、twocomponents:(1)diversifiablerisk,whichcanbediversifiedawayandthusisoflittleconcerntodiversifiedinvestors,and(2)marketrisk,whichreflectstheriskofageneralstockmarketdeclineandcannotbeeliminatedbydiversification,anddoesconcerninvestors.3.Expectedreturn期望收益Expectedre
7、turnreferstotheexpectedchangeinthevalueofanassetoveragiven(future)timeperiod.Sincewecannotknowthefuture,wehavetomakeaguessastowhatto“expect”,basedonwhathashappenedtoreturnsinthepast.4.Radomvariable随机变量5.Probability概率Theuncertaintyoffutureoutcomesisusuallyexpressedi
8、ntermsofprobabilityandplottedinaprobabilitydistributionwhichcanbeexpressedasanequationcalledtheprobabilitydistributionfunction.Wordsstudy6.Normal
