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1、MULTI-ASSETCHINAJanuary2019https://www.research.hsbc.comChinamulti-assetspecialWelcometotheYearofthePigChina’seconomyandcurrencylooksetforabumpyridethisyearButwestillseeplentyofpotentialupsidefortheA-andH-sharemarketsaswellasgovernmentbondsThisreportsummarisestheviewsofourmacroteams,equityanalyst
2、sandstrategistsPlayVideos:4Part1:Macro4Part2:EquitiesDisclaimer&Disclosures:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofitIntroductionAsweheadintotheYearofthePig,weofferclientsourmulti-assetviewsonChinabyprovidingtw
3、o-pagesummariesof35differentreports.Theyreflectthethoughtsofourmacroteamsontheeconomy,FX,rates,credit,andESG,andincludethematicreportsbyequitystrategistsandanalysts.Wealsohighlightthegrowingbodyofworkproducedbyourjointventure,HSBCQianhaiSecurities.DilipShahaniHeadofGlobalResearch,AsiaPacificTheHo
4、ngkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimiteddilipshahani@hsbc.com.hk+85228224520WilliamBratton*HeadofEquityResearch,AsiaPacificTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedwilliam.bratton@hsbc.com.hk+85228221622StevenSun*,CFA(S1700517110003)HeadofResearch,HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimitedHSBCQianhaiSe
5、curitiesLimitedstevensun@hsbcqh.com.cn+8675588983158AverywarmwelcometotheYearofthePigLastyearprovedtobeachallengingtimefortheChineseeconomy.TheescalationofthetradewarwiththeUShurtsentimentandcreateduncertaintyabouttheoutlookforthebusinessenvironmentandthecurrency.Financialdeleveraginghasbyandlar
6、gecontinueddespitemarginalrelaxationinregulations.Asaresult,broadcreditgrowthhascontinuedtoease,makinglifeparticularlydifficultfortheprivatesector,theheartbeatoftheeconomy.Boththedomesticandexternalchallengesarelikelytopersistin2019.However,webelievemorepoliciestosupportdomesticdemand,especiallyt
7、axcuts,willbeintroducedinordertocushiontheimpactoneconomicgrowth.Wealsothinkthat,afterastrongyear,furthergainsinChinabondsarelikelyin2019asBeijingcontinuestoprovidepolicyaccommodation.Webelievethat,despiteadifficultyea
