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1、本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目:CHINA’SEXCHANGERATEPOLICYANDASIANTRADE出处:NewFinance,2009(9)作者:AliciaGarcia-Herrero,TuuliKoivu原文:AbstractThispapershowsempiricallythatChina’stradebalanceissensitivetofluctuationsintherealeffectiveexchangerateoftherenminbi.However,thecurrentsizeofth
2、etradesurplusissuchthatexchangeratepolicyalonewillprobablynotbeabletoaddresstheimbalance.ThepotentialreductioninthetradesurplusresultingfromanincreaseintherenminbiexchangerateislimitedmainlybecauseChineseimportsdonotreactasexpectedtoarenminbiappreciation–theyten
3、dtofallratherthanincrease.ByestimatingbilateralimportequationsforChinaanditsmajortradepartners,wefindthatthereactionforimportsisgenerallyconfirmedforChina’stradewithSoutheastAsiancountries.ThatresultmightbeattributabletoAsia’sverticalintegration,asalargeshareofC
4、hineseimportsfromSoutheastAsiaarere-exported.WealsofindthattotalexportsfromanumberofAsiancountriesreactnegativelytoarenminbiappreciation,whichpointstoadependenceofAsiancountries’exportsonthoseofChina.Keywords:China,trade,exports,realexchangerateI.IntroductionChi
5、na’sshareinworldtradehasincreasedextremelyrapidlyduringthepastyears.Infact,itisalreadyoneofthelargestexportersintheworld,togetherwithGermanyandtheUnitedStates.Untilrecently,China’stradebalancewasveryclosetozero.AccordingtoChina'scustomsstatistics,itstradesurplus
6、amountedtomereUSD32billion(or1.7%ofGDP)in2004(Graph1).However,since2005thetradesurplushasballooned:itreachednearlyUSD180billionin2006(closeto7%ofGDP)andincreasedfurtherin2007,tomorethan10%ofGDP.11Ontheonehand,Chinesepolicymakersappeartobemaintaininganartificiall
7、ylowexchangeratefortherenminbisoastoprofitfromexternaldemandandachieveamuchneededhighgrowthrate.Ontheotherhand,giventhatpricesmaystillplayonlyalimitedroleinsupplyanddemanddecisionsinChina’stransitionaleconomy,doubtshavebeenraisedthattheexchangeratecanbeaneffecti
8、vetoolinreducingthetradesurplus.LinkedtothefirstargumentisthefactthatChinaisfacingstrongpressurefromindustrialcountriestoappreciatetherenminbi.Therealeffectiveexchang