Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate.pdf

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1、LETTERdoi:10.1038/nature10311Civilconflictsareassociatedwiththeglobalclimate112SolomonM.Hsiang{,KyleC.Meng&MarkA.CaneIthasbeenproposedthatchangesinglobalclimatehavebeendefineannualconflictrisk(ACR)inacollectionofcountriestoberesponsibleforepisodesofwidespreadviolence

2、andeventhetheprobabilitythatarandomlyselectedcountryinthesetexperiences1,2collapseofcivilizations.Yetpreviousstudieshavenotshownthatconflictonsetinagivenyear.Importantly,thisACRmeasureremoves18violencecanbeattributedtotheglobalclimate,onlythatrandomtrendsduetothegrow

3、ingnumberofcountries(SupplementaryFig.1).3–7weathereventsmightbecorrelatedwithconflictinsomecases.Inanimpossiblebutidealexperiment,wewouldobservetwoident-Herewedirectlyassociateplanetary-scaleclimatechangeswithicalEarths,changetheglobalclimateofoneandobservewhetherAC

4、Rglobalpatternsofcivilconflictbyexaminingthedominantinter-inthetwoEarthsdiverged.Inpractice,wecanapproximatethisexperi-8–10annualmodeofthemodernclimate,theElNin˜o/SouthernmentiftheoneEarththatwedoobserverandomlyshiftsbackandOscillation(ENSO).HistorianshavearguedthatE

5、NSOmayhaveforthbetweentwodifferentclimatestates.Suchaquasi-experimentis11–13drivenglobalpatternsofcivilconflictinthedistantpast,aongoingandischaracterizedbyrapidshiftsintheglobalclimatehypothesisthatweextendtothemoderneraandtestquantita-betweenLaNin˜aandElNin˜o.tivel

6、y.Usingdatafrom1950to2004,weshowthattheprobabilityToidentifyarelationbetweentheglobalclimateandACR,weofnewcivilconflictsarisingthroughoutthetropicsdoublesduringcomparesocietieswiththemselveswhentheyareexposedtodifferentElNin˜oyearsrelativetoLaNin˜ayears.Thisresult,wh

7、ichindicates19statesoftheglobalclimate.Heuristically,asocietyobservedduringathatENSOmayhavehadarolein21%ofallcivilconflictssinceLaNin˜aisthe‘control’forthatsamesocietyobservedduringanEl1950,isthefirstdemonstrationthatthestabilityofmodernNin˜o‘treatment’.Wesharpenthis

8、comparisonbyseparatingtheworldsocietiesrelatesstronglytotheglobalclimate.intotwogroupsofcountries:thosewhoseclimateisstronglycouple