中国农产品进出口模式实证分析

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1、China’Sagriculturalimportandexportbehaviorsfollowunderlyingendowmentandcomparativeadvantages，toexaminehowagriculturalimportandexportcontributetotheagriculturaloutputgrowth，tomeasuretheimpactofaccessiontoWTOontheagriculturaltradeandfinallytogivecorrespondinglypolicyimplications．Asingleequa

2、tionmodelwasusedtoanalyzetheexportandimportbehavior．Cobb—DouglasProductionfunctionwithexportandimportaddedasindependentvariablesisadoptedtoestimatethecontributionofagriculturalimportandexportcontributestothedomesticagriculturalgrowth．Whatarenewinthispaperisthatthoroughempiricalanalysis，We

3、Cangetthecoefficientofcertaineconomicvariables，suchasrelativepriceofagriculturalproducts，percapitaldomesticoutputofagriculturalproductstoestimatetheimpactsofthosevariablesontheagriculturaltradepattern，tomakepredictionsoffutureagriculturaltradedirection；alsoadummyvariableiSutilizedheretoex

4、aminehowtheeventofaccessiontoWTOinfluencetheimportandexportpaRernofcertainagriculturalproducts．However’duetodatalimitations，thecurrentmodelspecificationsalesomewhatdifficult．Aspecificlimitationistheinabilitytodisaggregatethetotalimportsandexpoasbytradingcountries．IfdataWeretobecomeavailab

5、le，itispossibletoestimatethemolerigorouslyspecifiedexportsupplymodelsbasedonafamilyofconstantelastieityoftransformationproductionpossibilityschedules．Also，sinceChinahasaccessedtoWTOwithrelativeshortduration，SOthedataarestillinsufficienttomakesomeconclusivetrendestimation．1．3Organizationof

6、DissertationThisdissertationisdividedinto5chapters：Chapter1givesanoverallpictureofthebackgrounds，objectivesandorganizationofthisdissertation．Chapter2reviewsthetheoreticalandempiricalstudiesonagriculture昀depatternsanditsimpactonagricultureproduction；Chapter3graphicallyandmathematicallyanal

7、yzesthecomparativeadvantagesofagriculturalproduction，estimatesbothexportandimportfunctionstoassessthefactorsaffectingagriculturalexportsandimportsbehaviorinChina，Chapter4examinestheimpactofagriculturalimportandexpoaonthegrowthofagriculturalproduction；Chapter5givesan