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1、当前国际金融危机的实质 及其理论根源汪祖杰教授南京审计学院金融学院院长经济学博士2008.10.157/19/20211讲题：一、现实与解释二、当前金融危机的实质三、当前金融危机理论根源四、结论、对策与制度变革7/19/20212一、现实与解释（一）金融危机的定义与影响7/19/20213（1）金融危机的定义——比较权威的定义是由戈德斯密斯（1982）给出的，是全部或大部分金融指标——短期利率、资产（资产、证券、房地产、土地）价格、商业破产数和金融机构倒闭数——的急剧、短暂和超周期的恶化。其特征是基于预期资产价格下降而大量抛出不动产或长期金融资产，换成货币。7/19/20214（
2、2）金融危机的类型：货币危机(CurrencyCrises)；银行危机(BankingCrises)；外债危机(ForeignDebtCrises)；信用危机(CreditCrises)。7/19/20215（3）美国金融危机和国际金融危机Ⅰ、美国金融危机：次贷危机；投资银行全军覆没；信贷市场和股市危机；实质经济危机。首先，次贷危机的3表现：7/19/202161）房市的持续下降7/19/20217a）查封量剧增Morethan272,000homesreceivedatleastoneforeclosure-relatednoticeinJuly2008,up55%fromab
3、out175,000inJuly2007andup8percentfromJune.1inevery464U.S.householdsreceivedaforeclosurefilinginJuly2008.http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080814/foreclosure_rates.html?printer=17/19/20218Foreclosure7/19/20219b）二手房交易量大幅下降Nationwide,themedianexistingsinglefamilyhomepricedown7.6%to$206,500from$223,500inth
4、esecondquarterof2007.http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/080814/081408_quarter_three_home_prices.html?printer=17/19/202110c）新房销售下降June2007–June2008http://www.lioninc.com/lion/new_home_sales17/19/202111d）房价下降FromJune30,2007toJune30,2008Sacramento,Calif.-35.6%CapeCoral,Fla.-33.1%Riverside,Calif.-32.7%,Lo
5、sAngeles,Calif.-29.6%LasVegas,Nev.-23.6%Phoenix,AZ-22.5%7/19/2021122）次贷的规模和坏帐ThevalueofU.S.subprimemortgageswasestimatedat$1.3trillionasofMarch2007Howsevereissubprimemess?-Realestate-MSNBC.com(2008).Over7.5millionsubprimemortgagesoutstanding.FRB:Speech,Bernanke--TheSubprimeMortgageMarket--May
6、17,2007Approximately16%ofsubprimeloanswithadjustableratemortgageswere90-daysdelinquentorinforeclosureproceedingsasofOctober2007,roughlytripletherateof2005.FRB:Speech--Bernanke,TheRecentFinancialTurmoilanditsEconomicandPolicyConsequences--October15,2007ByJanuaryof2008,thedelinquencyratehadrise
7、nto21%.FRB:Speech--Bernanke,FinancialMarkets,theEconomicOutlook,andMonetaryPolicy--January10,20087/19/202113什么是次级贷款?正级贷款的条件Creditscoreabove620(creditscoresarebetween350and850withamedianintheU.S.of678andameanof723)Nomorethan55%ofnetincomepaysf
