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1、h基于云模型的城市极端雨洪灾害风险评价研究#王贺1,3，刘高峰2,3，王慧敏1,3**510152025303540（1.河海大学商学院，南京211100；2.河海大学企业管理学院，常州213022；3.河海大学水文水资源与水利工程国家重点实验室，南京210098）摘要：构建最大24h降雨量、平均淹没水深、淹没历时、受灾人口率、受灾面积率、GDP损失率6个指标，综合运用层次分析法和熵权法确定各指标的权重，通过云模型定量评价各指标下风险的等级，建立基于正态云模型的极端雨洪下城市洪水风险综合评价模型。对景德镇极端雨洪引发的洪水进行风险评价，得到1990—2012年景德镇每年的风
2、险等级，找出引发洪水风险的关键因素。结果表明，景德镇深受洪水的影响，平均淹没水深与淹没历时对洪水产生的风险有重大影响。通过大量植树造林，增加透水面积；新建排水设施，清理城市排水管道，可以有效的降低景德镇极端雨洪带来的风险。云模型对于研究极端雨洪造成的城市洪水风险具有良好的效果。关键词：云模型；城市极端雨洪灾害；风险评价中图分类号：X43ResearchonUrbanExtremeRainstormsFloodLossBasedonCloudModelWANGHe1,3,LIUGaofeng2,3,WANGHuimin1,3(1.InstituteofManagementScie
3、nce,HohaiUniversity,Nanjing211100;2.CollegeofBusinessAdministration,Changzhou213022;3.StateKeyLaboratoryofHydrology-WaterResourcesandHydraulicEngineering,HohaiUniversity,Nanjing210098)Abstract:Effectivelyevaluateurbanextremestormflooddisasterlossisnotonlyascientificbasisformanagementofurbanf
4、looddisaster,butalsoaprerequisitetotakereasonableprecautions.Urbanextremerainstormfloodsformingprocessisverycomplex,involvingmanyuncertainties.Accuratelydescribingandexpressingtheseuncertaintiesisthekeytoeffectivelyevaluateflooddamage.Cloudmodelisanintelligentscientificmethodsbasedonuncertai
5、ntyanalysis.Usingexistingtheoreticalapproaches,atotalofsixassessmentindexeswereconsidered,suchasMaximum24hrainfall,AverageInundatedDepths,etc.WeintegratedAHPandentropyweightmethodtodeterminetheweightofeachindex,quantitativeassessedthelosslevelundereachindexbythenormalcloudmodel,establishedur
6、banextremerainstormsflooddamageevaluationmodelbasedonnormalcloudmodel.Finally,weevaluatedthefloodlossestriggeredbyextremerains,obtainedJingdezhen’annuallosslevelfrom1990to2012,foundoutthekeyfactorsthatcauseflooddamageandimprovedit.TheresultsshowsthatAverageInundatedDepthsandInundatedlastedha
7、veasignificantimpactonflood.Accordingtothecity'stopographyandurbandrainagenetwork,wedividethecityintosomepartition,determineeachpartition’sfloodstoragecapacityandthepartition’swaterloggingplanningprinciples.Draftingeachpartition’swaterloggingscheme
