MLP快报：收入能改变潮流.docx

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1、ABGlobalResearch26October2018EquitiesMLPHydrocarbonExpressEnergyAmericasBuckleUp–CanEarningsShifttheTide?TheWeekAhead:3Q18EarningsEarningspickupnextweek,withanumberofG&Psanddiversified'sreporting.WehighlightedOKEasawinnerinourpreview,andlooktoitscallonhowitbenefitsfromtheNGLtig

2、htnessvsviewsthatOKEisunprepared,wenoteestimateshavemovedupsincewepublishedourpreview.WeexpectEPDtoreportasolidquarter,andgiventherecentpullbackinthestockastrongbeatmaybefollowedbypositivestockreaction.GiventheENLK/ENLCsimplificationannouncementthisweek,wecontinuetoexpectquesti

3、ononWES/WGPonitscall,butnotegiventheColoradooverhangwedon’texpectanannouncementwithearningsasaresult.FocusonWMBwilllikelybeontheratecaseproceedingforTransco(16%ROEfiled)andfeedbackfromrecentmarketingdonebyWMBhasbeenpositivecouldtranslatethroughonthecall.TRPandENBreportlaterinth

4、eweek,andwelookforcolouronprojects,butlikelyhavetowaitfortheirupcomingAnalystDaysfor2019outlooksandfundingstrategyforTRP.MMPweexpectanupdateonLonghornre-contractingandgeneralexportcommentary.ForCEQPwelookforcadenceinto2019guidanceasitimplied15%annualgrowththrough2020atMLPA.ENLC

5、andENLKAnnounceSimplificationAswidelyexpected,ENLC/ENLKannouncedasimplificationtransactioneliminatingandcombiningintooneentity.Weexpectthetransactiontobe15%cashaccretivetoENLCandrepresentsa~1%premiumforENLKs10/19close.Thetransactionsresultsina19%backdoorcuttoENLKgeneratingcashs

6、avingsof~$80MM,whichwouldhelptodeleverbelow4.0xthrough'20,notablyENLCexpectstheagenciestoaffirmratings.Whilethepremiumislowerthanothersimilartransactions,wewouldnotethatthiswaswelltelegraphedandtheaccretionspreadcontracted100bpssincetheGIPtransactionclosed(cashaccretiononthedea

7、lwas~$80.3mmvs~$82.3mmhadthetransactionbeenannouncedimmediatelypostGIPtransactionwitha15%premium).Notably,2019guidancewasreducedwithNGLsbeingthesourceandwonderiftheaforementionedconcernsonOKEarewithinENLK(clickhereforothertakeawaysfromourbreakfastwithmanagement).Managementguidi

8、ngtoproformalow-doubledigitDCFperunitgrowth,coverageof