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ID:13313860
大小:681.00 KB
页数:63页
时间:2018-07-21
《dynamic complexity:动态复杂性》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在教育资源-天天文库。
1、DynamicComplexity50thAnnualMeetingoftheInternationalSocietyfortheSystemsSciencesGeorgeP.RichardsonRockefellerCollegeofPublicAffairsandPolicyUniversityatAlbany,SUNYDecisionsRealWorldInformationFeedbackStrategy,Structure,DecisionRulesMentalModelsVirtualWo
2、rldSelectedMissingDelayedBiasedAmbiguousImplementationGameplayingInconsistencyShorttermUnknownstructureDynamiccomplexityTimeDelaysImpossibleexperimentsMisperceptionsUnscientificBiasesDefensivenessKnownstructureVariableComplexityControlledExperimentsLear
3、ninginandaboutComplexSystemsSterman(1994)InabilitytoinferdynamicsfrommentalmodelsDynamicComplexityarisesbecausesystemsare…ChangingovertimeTightlycoupledGovernedbyfeedbackNonlinear:changingdominantstructureHistory-dependentSelf-organizingAdaptiveCounteri
4、ntuitivePolicyresistantCharacterizedbytradeoffsSystemDynamicsContributionsThinkingdynamicallyMovefromeventsanddecisionstopatternsofcontinuousbehaviorovertimeandpolicystructureThinkingincircularcausal/feedbackpatternsSelf-reinforcingandself-balancingproc
5、essesCompensatingfeedbackstructuresandpolicyresistanceCommunicatingcomplexnonlinearsystemstructureThinkinginstocksandflowsAccumulationsaretheresourcesandthepressuresonpolicyPoliciesinfluenceflowsModelingandsimulationAccumulating(andremembering)complexit
6、yRigorous(daunting)modelevaluationprocessesControlledexperimentsReflectionThesystemdynamicsmodelingprocessAdaptedfromSaeed1992ProcessesfocusingonsystemstructureProcessesfocusingonsystembehaviorTwokindsofvalidatingprocessesSixTraditionsContributingtotheE
7、volutionofFeedbackThoughtBiology:mathmodelsEconometricsEngineeringSocialSciencesBiology:homeostasisLogicTwoThreadsofFeedbackThoughtSystemdynamicsarisesintheservomechanismsthread(thefirstfourinthislist)Forrester’sHierarchyofSystemStructureClosedboundarya
8、roundthesystemFeedbackloopsasthebasicstructuralelementswithintheboundaryLevel[stock]variablesrepresentingaccumulationswithinthefeedbackloopsRate[flow]variablesrepresentingactivitywithinthefeedbackloopsGoalObservedconditionDetecti
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