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ID:12973092
大小:7.05 MB
页数:145页
时间:2018-07-20
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1、TextCanbadluckbeexplained?TextOrganizationGeneral-to-particularpatternI.IntroductionReasonsII.ReasonsMathematical/psychologicalIII.Specificbadluck1Specificbadluck2Introduction/Leadin(1-3)Raisequestions1.Doyouevergettheimpressionthatyouwerebornunlucky?2.Whatmightbetherationalexplanat
2、ion?II.Thedefinitionofbadness(4-6)Neutral←→BadBadnessMarginallybad←→extremelybadOnthespectrum---Thetrainarrives5minuteslateReasonsforbadthingshappeninginthree(7-10)1.Themostimportantofall---Durationandmemorability(Paras7-8)2.tendency(Para9)---lookforexampleswhichconfirmandignorethos
3、ewhichdon’t.3.RationalexplanationProbabilityandindependence(Para10)Matchtheexampleswiththetypeofevents1,burstwaterpipe2.caraccident3.loseweddingring4.beredundant5.dropapreciousvaseA.sthmighthappenwhenyoufeeldepressedB.memorableandunfortunateeventC.eventthatconfirmsthebadlucktheoryD.
4、unluckyeventthatmakespeoplesufferdepressionKey1----B2,3----C4----D5----ASpecificExamplesSpecificbadluck1---MapreadingmisfortunesSpecificbadluck1---ThelightsarealwaysredwhenI'minahurryJudgingstatements(I)1.Thechanceofpickingadestinationwhichisclosetotheedgeofthemapismuchhigherthanyou
5、expect.2.Peoplealwaysforgetthenumberoftimestheroaddoesn’tlandawkwardly.Judgingstatements(I)3.30%ofthemappageisduplicatedbecauseofselectivememory.4.Mapreadingmisfortuneisatypicalselectivememory.Judgingstatements(II)5.Therelativefrequencyofredandgreenlightsonajourneyisanotherexampleof
6、selectivememory.6.Trafficlightissimplifiedasbeingliketossingacoin,witha50%chanceofbeingred.Judgingstatements(II)7.Redlightscomeupnotsooftenwhenthedriverisnotinahurry.8.Redlightsareforgottenimmediatelywhilegreenlightsstickinpeople’sminds.Key1-4√√×√5-8√√××Numberthestatementsinacorrect
7、order1.Aswithcoincidence,inbadluck,thereisatendencytolookforexampleswhichconfirmthetheoryandignorethosewhichdon’t.2.Badluckcanbepartlyexplainedfromtheangleofmathsandpsychology.3.Whenitcomestobadthingshappeninginthree,itmaybeduetothedurationandmemorabilityofthefirstevent.4.Thereisatl
8、eastonereasonwhybad
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