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1、参阅外文文献资料AnalystRecommendationsandNasdaqMarketMakingActivityStockanalystsbecamecelebritiesinthebullmarketofthe1990s.Inthebearmarketthatfollowed,theybecamethefocusofretailinvestoroutrage,especiallyafterregulatoryinvestigationsrevealedwidespreadconflictsofinterest.InDec
2、ember2002,tenoftheleadinginvestmentbankspaidfinestotalling$1.4billiondollarstosettlecivilclaimsbroughtbyEliotSpitzer,theNewYorkAttorneyGeneral.Thispaperlooksatanotherpotentialconflictofinterestinthestockmarket,theonebetweenmarketmakingactivityandanalystrecommendation
3、s.Ifindcompellingevidencethatatmanysecurityfirms,marketmakingactivityisinfluencedbyanalystrecommendations.Forboth1999and2000,Ifindthatmarketmakerstendedtoaccentuatetheirbidactivityinanticipationofanalystupgrades.Iestimatethepotentialprofitsfromthisactivitytobesubstan
4、tial,approaching$600millioninagroupof47largecapitalizationNasdaqstocks.Theacademicliteraturehasfocusedonboththemarketpowerandbiasofanalysts.IthasbeenwellknownsinceWomack’s(1996)pioneeringworkthatindividualanalystsdoimpactstockreturns.Analystrecommendationchangesnoton
5、lyproducelargedailychangesinsecurityprices,buttheseeffectsalsopersist,foraslongassixmonthsinthecaseofdowngrades.Barber,Lehavy,McNicholsandTrueman(2001)alsoshowthatthereisinvestmentvalueintheconsensusrecommendations.WellbeforetheSpitzerinvestigation,researchhaddocumen
6、tedseriousbiasinanalystrecommendations.Analystshavebeentoobullishoverall.InJune2001,15monthsintothebearmarket,FirstCallreportedthatonly2%ofallsecurityanalystrecommendationsweresells.Partofthisbiasreflectspotentialrevenuesfrominvestmentbankingactivities.AccordingtoMic
7、haelyandWomack(1999),leadunderwriteranalystsissued50%morebuyrecommendations.Theirrecommendationsunderperformedpicksbyunconflictedanalystsbymorethan25%peryearfortwoyears.Spitzer’sinvestigationbroughtintoplainviewwhatthestatisticalevidencecouldonlyhintat.Therewasdirect
8、pressurewithinfirmsforanalyststoslantcoverageincaseswhereotherprofitable(generallyinvestmentbanking)relationshipsexisted.Theselinks
