[20120417] china' military 中国军事威胁辩论

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1、[2012.04.17]China'Military中国军事威胁辩论China'smilitary中国军事ThishousebelievesthattheriseofChina'smilitarypowerisathreattoEastAsianstability.论题：中国的军事力量崛起是对东亚地区稳定的一种威胁Defendingthemotion:AndrewKrepinevich,President,CenterforStrategicandBudgetaryAssessments,WashingtonDC正方：安德鲁·克莱皮内维奇（An

2、drewKrepinevich），华盛顿特区战略及预算评估中心主席Againstthemotion:DingliShen,ProfessorandExecutiveDeanoftheInstituteofInternationalStudies,FudanUniversityinShanghai反方：沈丁立，上海复旦大学国际问题研究院教授兼常务副院长Moderator:MatthewSymonds主持人：马修·西门子，《经济学人》国防军事记者主持人开场陈词：Atleastonethingthatourtwoprotagonistsshouldb

3、eabletoagreeonisthatChina'smilitarymodernisationisimpressivetestimonytotheemergingsuperpower'sgrowingself-confidence,technicalprowessandeconomicmight.Increasingdefencespendingbyaround12%ayearformorethanadecadeisboundtobuyaquantumleapincapabilities.Muchoftheinvestmentisguided

4、byaconsistentandclear-sightedstrategy—namelytomakeittoodangerousortoocostlyforthestatus-quosuperpower(ie,America)toprojectforceagainstChina'sinterestsintheeventofafuturecrisisintheregion.Itshouldthereforenotbesurprisingthatneighbouringcountriesseeitasathreat,ifnotdirectlytot

5、hemselves,atleasttotheestablishedsecurityorderinEastAsia.Whethertheyarerighttodosois,ofcourse,anothermatter. 正反双方应该可以同意一点：中国引人注目的军事现代化反映了这个新兴强国日渐增长的自信、科技水平和经济力量。持续十多年国防预算年增长12％注定会带来军事力量质的飞跃。中国大部份军事投资背后的主导战略思想非常清楚一致——即使未来东亚地区发生危机，现存强国（即美国）也会因为安全或是成本因素而无法投放军力危害中国利益。因此中国的邻国将其看作

6、是一种威胁也就不足为奇了。因为即便中国军事崛起的矛头并非直接指向对自己，至少其也会对东亚的现有安全秩序产生威胁。当然，它们这样的想法究竟是对是错，那完全是另一回事。Inthefirstplace,China'snewmilitarypowerisinsomewaysaresponsetoaspecificallyChineseproblem:theambiguousstatusofTaiwan.ChinesefearsofaformalTaiwansecessionhavereceded.However,Chinesehawksclaimtha

7、ttheyhavedonesopartlybecausetheassociatedmilitaryrisksforbothAmericaandTaiwanitselfhavebecomesomuchgreater.ShenDinglimaintainsthatChinahasyettogainthemilitaryhefttochallengeAmerica'ssecuritycommitmenttoTaiwan.ButitisdoubtfulwhetheranAmericanpresidenttodaywouldbeasquicktoorde

8、rcarriergroupstosailtowardstheTaiwanStraitbecauseofanincreaseintensionasBil