计量经济学课后习题答案郭存芝

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21S4TUV஺ᵫWXYQZ[ᦪḄt]஺9.S_`a8⚪ḄCESfghᦪᨵjᐸlḄlnSWyᦋSqnWT2Trᙢ1981-2005vwᑁfg1—jL,]Kfgz{Kஹ}~ᦪḄPQᦪ᝞⊤3-6ᡠ஺⊤3-6ᙢ1981—2005Ḅᑁᐵᦪ"'('(GDPGDPII'JIHJv%&)ᦪv%&)ᦪ#ᐗ"#ᐗ+,#ᐗ*)#ᐗ*)1981123.61486.7386.41994406.2141500.8456.31982125.82512.5391.21995421.3151523.7461.11983128.53521.8396.11996563.5161657.8465.41984132.34532.9401.91997710.6172378.5470.21985138.35550.3406.31998867.9182903.7473.91986140.76581.9410.81999910.3193106.7479.41987147.27589.3414.920001025.4203218.5483.51988155.48601.8419.520011287.6213827.6489.11989167.09631.9421.020021328.1224057.1483.11990180.110655.1425.620031409.1234355.2490.21991213.711667.3429.720041582.3244633.6498.41992309.9121083.3435.620051790.5254897.4510.11993385.8131358.9451.220061925.7265721.3516.2S1TQC—DfghᦪY=AH\+ryUKpesaS2TQឋᓄḄCESfghᦪ1KIny=InA+flnSl+ᔆT+m3lnL+஻?S1bTInK—P஻S1bTSln—T2+£Zᔜ[ᦪḄQ]஺ᐸlᔜ[ᦪḄa4——ᢈ¡r——ᢈ¢£᳛¡/—#$¡«——§¨Ḅ©ª«¡0——z8Ḅ©ª«¡m——¬ᦔ¯[ᦪ¡3——ᑖ±²ᦪ³᧜§¨⌕¶Ḅ·¸¹20<6<1¡p——»¼[ᦪp>\»!*S1TC—Dfghᦪ½¾'ᦪ¿aInÀ=In4+ln(l+r)-t+a

22L+

23K+sQÁL:

24Coefficients:EstimateStd.ErrortvaluePr(>|t|)(Intercept)5.097257.090890.7190.4798T0.032170.013832.3250.0297*Inভ-1.056351.20352-0.8780.3896ln(/Q0.954630.0579416.4757.34e-14***Signif.codes:0'***'0.001'**'0.01'*'0.05'.'0.1''1Residualstandarderror:0.05453on22degreesoffreedomMultipleR-squared:0.9974,AdjustedR-squared:0.997F-statistic:2774on3and22DF,p-value:<2.2e-16W¾'ᦪḄC—DfghᦪḄ᪵8=>/¹aInᡝ=5.09725+0.03217.1.05635lnL+0.95463-InKÄ¢£Å¿ÆÇlḄ[ᦪ&=e5.09725=]63.5714667r=e003217-1=0.032693048ÆÇḄQÁLY=163,57(1+0.033)'£-105635Ar095463e£(2)QឋᓄḄCESfghᦪEViewsQÁLaDependentVariable:LOG(Y)Method:LeastSquaresDate:10/23/08Time:23:26Sample:19812006Includedobservations:26VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C5.6348219.2439490.6095690.5487T0.0330070.0167291.9730470.0618LOG(L)-1.1576631.637611-0.7069220.4874LOG(K)0.9651370.1267107.6168830.0000LOG(K/L)*LOG(K/L)-0.0035080.037374-0.0938670.9261R-squared0.997364Meandependentvar6.006157AdjustedR-squared0.996862S.D.dependentvar0.996194S.E.ofregression0.055802Akaikeinfocriterion-2.762956Sumsquaredresid0.065392Schwarzcriterion-2.521014Loglikelihood40.91843F-statistic1986.622Durbin-Watsonstat1.860419Prob(F-statistic)0.000000È

25logA=5.6348log஺+T=0.033”6=—1.1577omSl-JT=0.9651¡᜛Ï5S1—5T=0.0035Ä4=431121.816r=0.079Ð=0.1926S=6.011/?=—0.0012S_aÑᙠÒÓᐳឋÕ⚪ᡠ[ᦪQÁLḄÖ×`UᔠᳮT10.rᖪÚḄ◤ÅhᦪInᓃ=92.3+0.46InX.-0.18InXh2iS0.126TS0.032TS3.651TS-5.625TÞ=0.983ᨴ=0.976F=581ᐸlÀ◤Å$XiáâὅᦈᐭX2æᖪÚçè஺S1T!"[ᦪḄÖ×`஺S2Téçèê10%ìíî◤Å᝞ï#ᓄS3Tᙠçèê10%ðñᦈᐭòÏÒóôVõᢝ◤ÅU#஺S4T!"ÇlᔜPQ$Ḅ஺!*S1Tᵫ᪵8/¹Ḅ÷øùXḄ[ᦪÄᖪÚḄᦈᐭúឋ⊤X2Ḅ[ᦪÄᖪÚḄçèúឋ஺S2TᵫúឋḄù᝞LᐸûᩩýU#çèê10%,þ'ÄᖪÚḄ◤Å$ìÿ1.8%஺3᪷ᐵᙠ10%ᢝ◤ᦈᐭ◤⌕$%0.46X0.018=0.00828,ᓽ0.828%஺4./0123Ḅᦪ0.126ஹ0.03278ᦪ9:;Ḅ᪵=᪗?@.A0123Ḅᦪ3.651ஹ-5.6257;D℉ឋGHḄtJtJKᜧMNᦈᐭOP◤ḄQRD℉.R\R2ஹTᑖV7WXᦪஹY᦮ḄWXᦪஹ[\D℉ឋGHḄFJ^_`a:;ḄbJKᜧMNcdḄefgᔠᦔjKk஺11.⊤3-5mn1960—1982q7`OECDwxḄyz◤ᢣᦪK}▭GDPᢣᦪX1ஹyzᢣᦪX2ᡠᨵᢣᦪᙳ1973q?1973q100஺⊤3-71960-1982q7`OECDwxḄyz◤ᢣᦪᐵᦪyz◤}▭GDPyzyz◤}▭GDPyzqqᢣᦪᢣᦪᢣᦪᢣᦪᢣᦪᢣᦪ196054.154.1111.9197297.294.398.6196155.456.4112.41973100.0100.0100.0196258.559.4111.1197497.3101.4120.1196361.762.1110.2197593.5100.5131.0196463.665.9109.0187699.1105.3129.6196566.869.5108.31877100.9109.9137.7

26196670.373.2105.31978103.9114.4133.7196773.575.7105.41979106.9118.3144.5196878.379.9104.31980101.2119.6179.0196983.383.8101.7198198.1121.1189.4197088.986.297.7198295.6120.6190.9197191.889.8100.3ᧇᩭzOrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(1)yz◤ḄPᦪᦪcdIn=&+InX„.+J3InX.+//,.,ᔜᦪḄ22(ᵨPJGHᔜ;7ᔲD℉ஹ[\7ᔲD℉஺(2)yz◤Ḅឋᦪcd=£஺+¡“+/72¡2,+4ᔜᦪḄᵨPJGHᔜ;7ᔲD℉ஹ[\7ᔲD℉஺(3)KᡠḄ¥`cd᝞j¥`cdḄ§¨©ª⌱¬`cd®¯°®᪷©⌱XḄcd9:}▭GDPᢣᦪ98.6ஹyzᢣᦪ121.5±yz◤ᢣᦪḄᦪJ᪀⌼´9:JḄ95%Ḅµ¶·¸஺¹(1)᪷⚪yz◤ḄPᦪᦪcd§j᝞Coefficients:EstimateStd.ErrortvaluePr(>|t|)(Intercept)1.549500.0901117.201.89e-13***log(Xl)0.996920.0191152.17<2e-16***log(X2)-0.331360.02431-13.631.39e-ll***Signif.codes:0'***'0.001'**'0.01'*'0.05'.'0.1'TResidualstandarderror:0.01801on20degreesoffreedomMultipleR-squared:0.9941,AdjustedR-squared:0.9935F-statistic:1694on2and20DF,p-value:<2.2e-16᪷☢Ḅ§jᵫ½(3,20)ḄTa:;ḄPJ¾¿2.2e-16,ÀÁᙠmXD℉ឋÂÃ5%,Ä᦮fÅ᪵=[\efḄឋᐵ7D℉Ḅ஺ᳮln(X1)Oln(X2)¥⚗8ᦪ9:;ḄPJ¾¿0.05,ᡠᙠmXD℉ឋÂÃ5%,ᙳÈÉ;D℉ឋGH஺¿7᪵=[\Inf=1.55+0.997•ln(XJ-0.331.ln(X)2᪷§j8ᦪA=0.997,MNᙠᐸË;ḄᩩÍ}▭GDPᢣᦪÎᓣ1%,ÐÑÒyz◤ᢣᦪᓣ0.997%,Óᳮ¨cdÔÕÖḄ}▭GDPᢣᦪÓyz◤ᢣᦪ׸ØᙠÙᐵᐵ/ÚÛ8ᦪÜ=-0.331,MNᙠᐸË;ḄᩩÍyzᢣᦪÎÝ1%,ÐÑÒyz◤ᢣᦪᓣ0.331%,Óᳮ¨cdÔÕÖḄyzᢣᦪÓyz◤ᢣᦪ׸ØᙠÞᐵᐵ/Úßà|â|<1,^ᳮ¨cdyzäå/æ7çèéឋḄ/Ú஺(2)᪷⚪yz◤Ḅឋᦪcd§j᝞:

27Coefficients:EstimateStd.ErrortvaluePr(>|t|)(Intercept)28.255061.4214919.881.21e-14***XI0.980850.0194550.42<2e-16***X2-0.258430.01528-16.912.59e-13***Signif.codes:0'***'0.001'**'0.010.050.1''1Residualstandarderror:1.435on20degreesoffreedomMultipleR-squared:0.9939,AdjustedR-squared:0.9933F-statistic:1627on2and20DF,p-value:<2,2e-16᪷☢Ḅ§jᵫ½3,20
ḄTa:;ḄPJ¾¿2.2e-16,ÀÁᙠmXD℉ឋÂÃ5%,Ä᦮fÅ᪵=[\efḄឋᐵ7D℉Ḅ஺ᳮlnXDOlnX2¥⚗8ᦪḄPJ¾¿0.05,ᡠᙠmXD℉ឋÂÃ5%,ᙳÈÉ;D℉ឋGH஺¿7᪵=[\Y=28.256+0.98IX,-0.259-X2᪷§j8ᦪ£=0.981,MNᙠᐸË;ḄᩩÍ}▭GDPᢣᦪÎ$%1,ÐÑÒyz◤ᢣᦪᓣ0.981,Óᳮ¨cdÔÕÖḄ}▭GDPᢣᦪÓyz◤ᢣᦪ׸ØᙠÙᐵᐵ/ÚÛ8ᦪ&=-0.259,MNᙠᐸË;ḄᩩÍyzᢣᦪÎÝ1,ÐÑÒyz◤ᢣᦪᓣ0.259,Óᳮ¨cdÔÕÖḄyzᢣᦪÓyz◤ᢣᦪ׸ØᙠÞᐵᐵ/Ú஺3
KᡠḄ¥`cd¥`cdᙳÈÉ[\O;D℉ឋGHë7./`cdḄìWᦪ0.9941,Y᦮ḄìWᦪ0.9935,.A`cdíîÛßàPᦪcdḄᦪᨵḼᱯñḄòóôõ⊤éឋᦪᡠ᝞j¥`cdḄ§¨ª⌱¬.`cd஺᪷ᡠ⌱XḄcdö9:}▭GDPᢣᦪ98.6ஹyzᢣᦪ121.5±õᐭᑮ[\Ôøyz◤ᢣᦪḄ⚜úJḄ9:Jᓃ=93.31,ü/ýìþøᐸ95%Ḅµ¶·¸89.77,96.99
12.ÿ
ᓃ=4+4X“+᜛2X2,+᜛3X3,+Ẇᡃ“ᦈᦈᐭ”“ᑁXJ'ஹ"X2”ஹ“ᖪ!"#$ᢣᦪX3”Ḅ()*+,-./␺12ᑮḄ᪵5ᦪ*᝞⊤3-5ᡠ9஺⊤3-8ᡃᦈᦈᐭ;<ᐵᦪ*ᦈᦈᐭᑁᖪ!"#$ᢣᦪ/>?@ᐗB?@ᐗB?@ᐗB?%B197851936451122100.7197953840631282102.0198057245461299106.0

28198163048921138102.4198270053231230101.9198377659631410101.5198494772081701102.81985204190162004108.819862091102752205106.019872140120592262107319882390150432491118.519892727169922824117.819902822186683084102.119912990217823387102.919923297269243742105.419934255353344642113.219945127481985793121.719956038607946824114.819966910711777938106.119978234789739234100.819989263844021079897.4199910683886771318897.0200012582992151588798.5200115301109551890399.22002176361203332205398.72003200171358232465099.920042416615987828487102.820052877918308533930100.81
D.
EᦪஹFGHI⚗ḄKI஺?2
LM
ᒹOPQRSLMஹTᔠVWLMஹXYZ℉ឋLMஹK]Z℉ឋLM஺^_?1
᪷*⚪Rbcdឋeᦪ
fghi᝞jkCoefficients:EstimateStd.ErrortvaluePr(>|t|)(Intercept)-3.757e+031.181e+03-3.1810.00402**XI5.738e-033.233e-031.7750.08863.X28.124e-011.874e-0243.343<2e-16***X33.471e+011.101e+013.1520.00432**Signif.codes:0'***'0.001**001*'0.050.1''1Residualstandarderror:348.3on24degreesoffreedomMultipleR-squared:0.9982,AdjustedR-squared:0.998F-statistic:4452on3and24DF,p-value:<2.2e-16

29lm☢ḄhioFGHI⚗Ḅ᪗qIḄᨬstuD.v348.3,ᡠ|ᐸKI:a2=121333.7?2B
LM1.PQRSLM᪷*PQᳮoᑁḄ᡽ᜧᦈᦈᐭtὅᕈ<ᐵᐵEᦪ£=5.738e-03ு0,ᳮ
ḄtEᦪ᪷*¡PQᨵᐵᳮ᡽£ឋḄ¤᡽ᜧ◤¦§¨©ᦈᦈᐭª«ᩭᦈḄ®¯°ᡠ|Eᦪ0

30ùúFG^ÑXYû⚪1.FG^ÑXYḄᩭüᨵýþÿ
Ḅᩭᨵ
Ḅᐹᨵឋᵫ᡾⚗ᒹ!"#$ᶍ&Ḅ'ᶍ&Ḅ(#$Ḅ))*+ᐵḄ#$-ᨵ.Ḅ/0⚗'.123*Ḅ஺2.ᨵ56789ᑖ78;<=ᨬ?@ABCḄDE(0F9
ᨵG678H78Iᨬ?@ABCḄDEJ0FKH஺L1*ḄM(᡾⚗+ᐵNOPᵨOLSBCᑮḄSᦪBCUVWXBCL2(᡾⚗HYWᐵஹHY+ᐵNOOLSBCᑮḄSᦪBC*ᨵXM[\ḄBCL3(᡾⚗HY+ᐵNOOLSBCᑮḄSᦪBC*ᨵX]^[\ḄBC஺3.⌱`aVbᐹḄcdefghᩩj9
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2(᡾⚗+ᐵL3(#$ᐸt+ᐵluvwxyzᐳ|ឋ஺4.=#$Yt=Bo+BiXn+B2X2t+B3Yti+utᎷ~Y[(d+ᐵ஺V"◀+ᐵឋPᵨbᐹ
ᐜᓃᐵ(Xᑮ1t᝞I
B0+BIXH+B2X21+B-sy+t
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◀஺ᙠ1Ꮇ~IXH,X21(*+ᐵḄᵫᵫ(XzBCwḄ᮱It(+ᐵ஺5.=[ᐗ#$Ꮇ~XḄ£X,(¤ᨵX¥
X,=X+e“ᐸe,*ᐹᨵ¦ᙳஹW¨ᑡ+ᐵ](XªU,+ᐵḄ஺

1ᔲ«X,=X¬+e,pᐭ#$¤ᣚᡂY,=M+BX+v,0±²BC9ᐸv,Vᣚ0#$Ḅ᡾⚗஺
2±[³Ꮇ~?(´¤µlª¶·(X¤µW¸Y+ᐵgE
Xiv,=0ᡂ¹ᔩ9X,(Xi+ᐵᔩ9
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2Ḅ»¼½¾¿᪵Ḅbᐹ=ᣚ0Ḅ#$±²BC9
L1Á஺ÂVᣚ0Ḅ#$Vᓃ=6஺+6ÃCLu-e.e,ÁÄᯠᵫ4(X,HY+ᐵᑣ;<ᣚ0Ḅ#$Ḅ᡾⚗VǬ■,(X,HY+ᐵ஺(2)E(X,τv)=E[(X+e,,)("B©)]tt

31=E(Xiut)—3)E(Xi-i6,)+E(e,-iUJ—0)E(6,-iei)=0IyᦪḄOµ¨ᑡ◀^¶·*l[▤ÛᑖḄ8Üᡈᓄ᳛Ḅ8Üwx))ᐹᨵàáḄ+ᐵឋÂâX,(X-ãä⊤æç#ᡈèéḄO¶·¤µê+ᐵ᝞F*[▤ÛᑖḄ8Üᡈlᓄ᳛Ḅ8᝱wxᑣ¶·µḄ+ᐵឋ3ìíîMUᨵ[ïðrḄ+ᐵឋ஺(3)ᵫ(2)Ḅ»¼E(Xv)=0,ᓽX-(ᣚ0Ḅ#$Ḅ᡾⚗+ᐵ']ᐘ(X-tltᨵàáḄ+ᐵឋÂᵨXiaVX,Ḅbᐹ=ᣚ0Ḅ#$±²BC஺6.[m=÷ᙢùᜧûü3ýþÿ
Ḅᓫ᝞gEMPt=Bo+BigMINI+BgPOP+B,gGDP>+BigGDP+ut2ttL"#$EMP%&'(Ḅᜧ*+,ᦪ$MINI%.ᙢ0ᨬ2▲456$POP%&7(Ḅᜧ*+,ᦪ,GDP1%.ᙢ09ᑁ+;<=$GDP%.99ᑁ+;<=>g⊤@ABC᳛஺(1)᝞H.ᙢ0IJKLLMMN᧕PQḄᓾS&7(ᜧ*+'(ᨵ
ḄUVW%XẠᩭ⌱\ᨬ2▲456$ᑣOLS_`abcᙠefg⚪i(2)jMIN%.9Ḅᨬ2▲456$klmn᡾p⚗rᐵᔩi(3)ᢥ᯿xy$ᔜᙢ0ᨬ2▲456N{2|9}ᨬ256$~fgMINᡂ%gMINIḄ5ᐹᔩi(1)ᵫ|ᙢIJ᪷ḄஹḄKḄᩭᑴᙢ0ᨬ2▲456$¡#¢Nᒹ¤¥¦UV$§¨©ªᑮ¬Ḅmn᡾⚗#$U®gMINIlUN°±rᐵ$§²³´rᐵḄ$¥aµ¶OLS_`Ḅ·¸$¹º᪵¼½Bᜧ¾¿NᐹᨵÀÁឋ஺(2)ᐰ9ᨬ2▲456ḄᑴÄ⌕᪷ᐰ9᦮ÇḄȧ$U®gMINIX¼lÉḄmn᡾p⚗Êᐵ஺(3)ᵫ|ᙢIJᙠᑴ¼ᙢ0ᨬ256¾ËËbὃ⇋ᐰ9ᨬ256Î⌕Ï$U®gMINIlgMINᐹᨵÐÑḄrᐵឋ஺ªᔠ(2)ÓgMINKW%gMINIḄ5ᐹÔᵨ஺Ö×ØLÙᐳÛឋ1.efLÙᐳÛឋi;+LÙᐳÛឋḄÝefiS|Lᐗß©j70஺+/34+^Xk+…+/3kXzWi=L2,…,n᝞HàáâᡈLâäåæçè¬rᐵឋ$ᑣé%LÙᐳÛឋ஺;+LÙᐳÛឋḄÝ$ᙠ¾æÉᨵᐳ´ᓄḄëìíåæÐÑḄrᐵឋ஺î᜜$#ᒹ¤älᐸñòä¾$ᵫ|ä¼óòrᐵ$¿b;+LÙᐳÛឋ஺2.LÙᐳÛឋḄᓻõefi%efb⌼ᡂ¥¦ᓻõicᙠ÷ᐰḄLÙᐳÛឋ¾$ḄøᦪaÊx_`$U%øᦪ_`(XX)“XY#Ḅ(XX)üaNcᙠ>LÙᐳÛឋý4³þ¾,(XX)üḄᑖ
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32ᜫ@ᨵḄBCD஺3.FGᐳHឋḄIJK7LMNᨵOPQRINSTFGᐳHឋḄJK7UVᔜWIᩭ()237ᔲZᙠ℉Ḅᐵᐵ5஺FGᐳHឋḄQRIᨵF\⌕^_ᵫ_abWTᑭᵨ⌲fghI᣸◀klᐳHឋḄஹᑖIஹopᦪḄஹᑭᵨᐜrsᦋᦪḄuvwxஹyz᪵ᩈ}~஺4.ᙠẆᦪᑮ_aWTInf=-5,04+0.887lnK+0,893lnLttt(A)S.E.=(1.40)(0.087)(0.137)R2=0.878n=21ln?t=-8.57+0.0272t+0.4601nK+1,285InLt(B)S.E.=(2.99)(0.020)(0.333)(0.324)R2=0.889n=21ᐸY=K=L=t=3n=᪵}஺gST(1)!"(A)ᡠᨵḄ5ᦪᙠ7℉Ḅ(5%)%(2)!"(B)tInkḄ5ᦪᙠ*℉(5%)%(3)^LM⌼ᡂ@(B)InKḄ5ᦪ*℉%(4)᝞t0InKḄᐵ5ᦪ0.98,
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42Ḅ²³jkឋᦪᓽ©ₐpḄjkª«1%ᕸᖹ◤P±ª«0.1483%஺(2)ᕸᖹ◤PḄjkឋ0.1647´µ1,¶µ·¸ឋ஺(3)ᵫµ²³jkឋº⊤»¼ὅ஺(4)qTḄᦪ-0.0089,⊤ᕸᖹḄ◤Pᙠ⌲#⌴஺(5)ḄᐭÀ᧜J@⁚Âïᕸᖹ◤PḄÄÅ஺(6)ᙠ5%Ḅ℉ឋÆÇLtḄÈÉÊto025(70-8)=1.99,D1ËDᦪḄtÌ2¯ÊᜧµÈÉÊᙠ℉Ḅ஺(7)ᕸᖹ◤P£ᙠ@⁚ᦔ¦>?▤Ï>C@AḄ├Ñ⌕®µᐸx@A஺7.?ᵫÓ209Ḅ᪵ÕÖḄCEO×ÆḄTIn(salary}=4.59+0.2571n(sales)+0.01lroe+0.158finance+0.181cosprod-0.283utility(15.3)(8.03)(2.75)(1.775)(2.130)(-2.895)ᐸcsalary⊤#×Æ(Øᐗ)ஹsales⊤#ᦈᐭ(Øᐗ)ஹroe⊤ÚÛÜἠᦈÞ(Øᐗ);finance>consprodutilityᙳᑖá⊤âãäஹghåäÚᵨæä¯ç.ä²èéä஺(1)vêᦪḄiফìᢝsalesroelîÚᵨæä²èéäïqÖ×ÆḄðñòᑖçóô஺óôᙠ1%Ḅ℉ÆÇ℉Ḅᔩ(3)ghåäâãäïqÖ×ÆḄðñòᑖçóôö®ᑏø?ùúûüýþÿ
ᙠᔲ℉Ḅ஺(1)financeḄᦪḄ├ᦈᐭ!"#ἠᦈ%&ᢝ()*+,-.ḄCEO⌕01234.ḄCEO567815.8
9ᑖ;஺ᐸ=>
?@AB஺(2)!ᵨD.E1234.FGH78ḄIA9ᑖ0JK9ᑖᦪButilityḄᦪ,ᓽ28.3%஺ᵫOᦪḄtP-2.895,QᜧO1%℉ឋ8TUVᵫW203ḄtᑖXḄYZP1.96,[\]℉Ḅ஺(3)ᵫO^_`a.E,-.bcO1234.Ḅ789ᑖ0ᑖd15.8%18.1%,[\QeGḄ18.1%-15.8%=2.3%஺f
ghijkfᔲ℉Ḅln(salary)=Bo+B11n(salse)+6roe+B3+஺1consprod+autilty+(Xtrans+u223ᐸl+trans1234.mn)o஺pc0qr,-.+[\^⊤uv^_`a.,-.78Ḅ9ᑖᦪ+ᐸtP?ᵨᩭxy℉ឋjk஺z{|}~)o1.}~}~Ḅ[⌕ᨵB)oEB)oḄ[ὶ?g(ᙠf*G+ᙠfl2ᨵ*G}~+B)o◤⌕2f*GgᐰᵨOB)o஺ᵫOḄឋ+B)oḄ)ᓄ¢¢£ᑮV¥¦§P8TḄ¨©஺B)o£V¥ᡈᐸQ)o«8TḄ¨¬}~஺}~⌕ᵫO)oV¥ஹ¯°ὅ²ᳮஹᢈµEᑴWḄ[஺

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⌴=ஹz+᎔V=஺eNIḄ`Xᓫ᧕(ஹᜫᵫஹ>?ᐳ8ឋ+Lᦪ)*ᐹᨵbឋ஺"`XᩗᦪḄឋᜧ⌕Bh▭j⚪ḄᱯᐹᨵḄ஺EḄIX>⌱\xᩗᦪᑖ'()*᪷g,-¡*⌱¢ᨬ¤N¥஺5.Koyck<=ஹ〉§⚜<=+©ª«᦮<=ᨵ®.Y<=)*¯5ᙠ[°±²?᝞´Ya
Koyck<=XᵫM▲ᑖD<=µKoyckᣚ·Ḅb▤OP<=¹᝞º»:⌕½¾¿⚜ḄÀÁ⚜ḄᓄÃ$Ä〉§⚜Ꮇᑣº»Ḅᓄ3lᵨ〉§⚜<=ᩭÈɹᙠÊb°GËÌÍÎÏ〉§»Ḅᓄº»ᨵ¿⚜Ḅᨬ¤0Ð1B§ᓽ»ḄÑ0ÀÁº»Ḅ⚜0º»ḄÒ0X.»8ឋÓᦪḄ<=ÔÏ©ª«᦮<=஺~]<=ḄᨬÕzKÖ3l×ᓄÏb

44▤OP<=஺Ø⌕ᨵÙ¿N☢
bXÛ·<=ḄGËÜÝÐÞß.¹àXᵫ<=zᡂáᳮ.Ûáã᡾⚗å᪀.p<=)*æᩭbsÀÁ஺Koyck<=+〉§⚜<=Ã$çᐺᎷs»Ðáã᡾⚗.9ᐵéᨬêàëI)*Xᨵìíb)*3ᵨQᐹI'()*¹〉§⚜<=ᑣî5ᙠ»Ðáã᡾⚗Ḅ®9ᐵïðéᨬêàë)*ᐹᨵbឋ஺6.ὃòlóᑖD<=
Yt=a+pOXt+p1Xt-1+p2Xt-2+p3Xt-3+p4Xt-4+p5Xt-5+gtᎷ᝞ᵨAlmon2▤ᨵ▲>⚗Kᣚ)*^¿<=nYt=0.85+0.50WOt+0.45Wlt-0.10W2tᐸÎ
555W0t=ZXt-i,Wlt=Zi-Xt-i,W2t=giA2Xtii=0i=0i=0(1)õ<=ÎᔜLᦪḄ)*0¹(2)÷)*XBYḄøÀÁëᦪ+ÀÁëᦪ஺a:(1)᪷gAlmonùᦪᣚ
“a=0.85,Ap0=Aa0=0.5,Aa1=0.45,Aa2=-0.10ú1=Aa0+-al+'a2=0.5+0.45-0.10=0.85ú2—a0+2Fl+4»2=0.5+2x0.45-4x0.10=lú3=10+3-al+Ta2=0.5+3x0.459x0.10=0.95-04=aO+4Aal+16Aa2=0.5+4x0.45-16x0.10=0.7ú5=Aa0+5*al+25^a2=0.5+5x0.45-25x0.10=0.25ফXBYḄøÀÁëᦪÏXtḄùᦪú0=0.5;XBYḄÀÁëᦪÏᔜùᦪ1+5Xúi=0.5+0.85+1+0.95+0.7+0.25=4.25¹i=0XBYḄᔜüëᦪᑖÏᔜḄùᦪ
ú1=0.85,ú2=1,ú3=0.95,ú4=0.7,ú5=0.25o

45