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1、August8,201704:15AMGMTIndiaEquityStrategyMORGANSTANLEYINDIACOMPANYPRIVATELIMITED+RidhamDesaiEQUITYSTRATEGISTRidham.Desai@morganstanley.com+91226118-2222WhatisLiquidity?SheelaRathiEQUITYSTRATEGISTSheela.Rathi@morganstanley.com+91226118-2224Theongoingcommentaryinthem
2、arketisthatliquidityisdrivingupsharepricesratherthanfundamentals.Whatexactlyisliquidity?Liquidityisnotinstitutionalflows,forsure.Ifanything,institutionalflowslagshareprices,andliquidityismostlyacoincidentindicator.Inpractice,flowsarealwaysnetzero,solookingatoneside
3、ofatrade,suchaswhatinstitutionsaredoinginthemarket,isflawed.Liquidity,inourview,istherelativeforcebetweenthebidandtheoffer.Ifthebidisstrongerthantheoffer,thenliquidityisjudgedtobegood,andsharepricesriseandviceversa.Thesourceofliquidityisconfidenceingrowthandmacrost
4、ability.Wheresuchconfidencecomesfromisamysterytomarketparticipantsusingreporteddatatounderstandshareprices,asthisconfidenceisaboutthefutureandnotabouttrailingdata.Thatsaid,reporteddataplayssomeroleinshapingupconfidenceaboutthefuture.Bottomlineisliquidity(thestrengt
5、hofthebid)isrisingwhentheconfidenceaboutthefutureisrising.Whenthisconfidenceistoohigh,sharepricesgetripeforaconcertedfall.Arewethere?Toanswerthisquestion,weneedtofirstmeasureliquidity.Weofferfourmetrics:a)thegapbetweenthechangeintrailingP/Eandearnings,b)thegapbetwe
6、enIndia'searningsyieldandtheUStreasuryyield,c)ourproprietaryfinancialconditionsindex,andd)thedifferencebetweentheYoYchangeinsharepricesandYoYchangeinM2growth.Thelogicfortheseindicatorsisinsidethisnote.Giventheephemeralnatureofliquidity,noneofthesemeasuresiswatertig
7、htinitsabilitytodepictliquidityfully.Thatsaid,theyarecurrentlynotsuggestingexcessesthatwouldpointtoasignificantcorrectioninIndianequities.MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmay
8、haveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmaki
