汇丰银行-中国出口-china inside out：export pick~up not just a demand story-20170727-hsbc

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1、27July2017ChinaInsideOutECONOMICSCHINAExportpick-upnotjustademandstoryChina’sexportsarereboundingasglobaldemandimprovesQuHongbinChiefEconomist,GreaterChina…andChina’srapidmoveintohighervalue-addedgoodsalsoTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedhongbinqu@hsbc.co

2、m.hkhelpsittocapitaliseonbetterexternaldemand+85228222025JuliaWangGreaterexportsophisticationandcloserintegrationwithEMsEconomist,GreaterChinaTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedwillhelpsupportChina’sexportgrowthinthemediumtermjuliarwang@hsbc.com.hk+85236043663Af

3、terasharpcontractionin2016,andagainstthebackdropofrisingprotectionistAakankshaBhatBangaloreAssociaterisks,thereboundinChina’sexportgrowthhasbeennothingshortofimpressivesofarin2017.Inthefirsthalfof2017,exportsgrew8.5%y-o-y.Inthisreport,welookatwhatisdrivingtheexportrecoveryan

4、dwhetheritcanbesustained.Tobesure,therecoveryinglobaldemandisakeyfactoratplay.Ourglobaldemandproxy,whichreachedatroughinDecember2015,hasregisteredpositivegrowthsincemid-2016.TherecoveryindemandintheUSandtheEurozone,up11.4%andup7.4%inthefirsthalfof2017,respectively,isparticul

5、arlylarge,althoughemergingmarkets’demand,asawhole,hasalsobottomedsinceearly2016,withdemandinLatinAmericarisingatafastpace.However,thedemandrecoveryisfarfromthefullpicture.AnotherkeyfactoristhestructuraladjustmentwithinChina’sexportsector.China’sexportmarketsharehasrisenconti

6、nuouslysinceitsWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)accessionin2001;however,impressively,thisprocesshascontinuedin2012-16,whenglobaltradewasslowingandevencontracting.Fromapre-crisislevelof10%,China’sexportmarketshareincreasedto12%in2012and14%in2016.Drivingthisprocessisthesignificantch

7、angeinexportcomposition,awayfromlabour-intensiveandlowvalue-addedmanufacturedgoodstohighervalue-addedelectricalandmachinerygoods.FollowingLall(2010),wefoundthatChina’s‘high-techexport’marketsharerosefrom21%in2007to27%in2016andwasthekeydriverofexportgrowthinthepost-GlobalFina

8、ncialCrisis(GFC)years.ThestructuraladjustmentenabledChinatocapitaliseonthep