麦格里集团-one belt one road (obor) selfish yet enlightened marshall plan-20170615-macquarie

麦格里集团-one belt one road (obor) selfish yet enlightened marshall plan-20170615-macquarie

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时间:2018-03-11

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1、GLOBALOneBeltOneRoad(OBOR)“IftheImperialkindnessextendedthroughoutSelfishyetenlightenedMarshallPlanthefourseas,thentherewouldbenoneedtoseekpearls;pearlswouldcometoChinaon‘MandateofHeaven’andthe‘barbarians’leadto…theirown,”saidscholarWeiCheng,‘TianXia’isanancientChinesecon

2、ceptthatisvariouslytranslatedas‘allunderexplainingtheessenceofthetributarysystemtooneoftheTangdynastyrulers.Heaven’or‘everythingundertheheavens’,andformorethan2,000yearsitdistilledtheessenceofChina’sglobaloutlook.Itwassynonymouswiththe“Themodernsystemofthedivisionofentire‘

3、knownworld’,andtheEmperor(asaSonofHeaven)ruledallpeoplelabour…isindangerofbreakingdown…asidefromthedemoralizingeffectonunderHeaven.Thiswasnotanationalbutculturalconcept,withbarbarianstheworldandthepossibilitiesofdividedintotwocategories,‘raw’and‘cooked’(thelatterhavingabil

4、itytodisturbances,theconsequencestotheassimilateintoChinesecultureandcivilization).ChinahadalwaysvieweditselfeconomyoftheUSshouldbeapparent…itisastheMiddleKingdom,withsurroundinglandshavingasubordinatetributelogicalthattheUSwoulddowhateveritisrelationshipwithit.TianXiawasn

5、otaboutmoney,butperceptionofstateglory,abletodotoassistinthereturnofnormalandthedomesticpositionoftheEmperorwasalwaysstrongerifforeignlandseconomichealthtotheworld,withoutwhichacceptedChina’scentrality.Itisnotthatmuchdifferenttoday.therecanbenopoliticalstability,”Secretary

6、ofState,GeorgeMarshall,1947.WhathasittodowithOBOR?Webelievethatitservesadualpurpose.ItisaPotentialLabourForce(%)resurrectionofChina’shistoric‘TianXia’,afterseveralhundredyearsinthewilderness.Itattemptstore-enforcethecentralityofChinaanddraw80.0%72%‘barbarians’closerintoit

7、sorbitwhilehighlightingtoitsdomesticaudience70.0%China’sglobalrise,andhencefurtherlegitimizingtheprevailingorder.Butit57%60.0%alsohasapragmaticobjectiveofensuringthatChina’sindustrialandsavings50.0%43%over-capacityisdeployedexternally,thusmaintainingutilizationandreducing4

8、0.0%35%19.5%17%domesticover-investment;itisalsoa‘selfish’versionoftheMarshallPlan.30.0%7%

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