麦格里集团-alibaba group holding aglobalecosystem built on data20170612-macquarie

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1、UNITEDSTATESAlibabaGroupHoldingBABAUSOutperformAglobalecosystembuiltondataPrice(at03:24,10Jun2017GMT)US$139.44ConclusionValuationUS$171.00-SumofPartsWeattendedAlibabaInvestorDayinHangzhouon8&9June.Thecompany12-monthtargetUS$171.00guidedFY18revenuegrow

2、thof45-49%YoY,exceedingboththemarketand12-monthTSR%+22.6ourexpectationsof36%/38%.BABAreaffirmeditsmid-andlong-termgoalsGICSsectorSoftware&ofachievingUS$1tnGMVbyFY20andserving2bnconsumersbyFY36.WeServicesraiseourFY18/FY19revenueestimatesby7%/14%tofactor

3、inthestrongMarketcapUS$m352,783andresilientChinae-commercegrowthandtheIntimeconsolidation.Welift30-dayavgturnoverUS$m2,308.4ourFY18/FY19EPSby7%/13%,andraiseourTPtoUS$171fromUS$142.Numbersharesonissuem2,530Weidentifythreekeyphrases–Newretail,globalizati

4、on,anddata.InvestmentfundamentalsYearend31Mar2017A2018E2019E2020EImpactRevenuebn158.3233.8321.9423.2Redefinetraditionalretailthroughdigitizationandintegration.OnlineEBITbn48.172.099.5131.8Reportedprofitbn43.754.478.1105.2retailaccountedforc.15%ofChina

5、’sretailsalesin2016,andAlibaba’sNewAdjustedprofitbn60.582.7113.9148.8Retailstrategyaimsattheremaining85%.TherecentacquisitionofIntimeGrosscashflowbn68.595.9131.3170.4CFPSRmb26.6337.0250.3864.98addedfashionandbeauty,theinvestmentinSuningaddedconsumerCFP

6、Sgrowth%38.239.036.129.0electronics,whileinvestmentsinSanjingandLianhuahelpedBABAtapfreshPGCFPSx35.625.618.814.6EPSadjRmb23.5431.9043.7156.76food&FMCG.Alibabaaimstogrowitscustomerbase,andgainB2CmarketEPSadjgrowth%40.735.537.029.9share.WeprojectFY18/19C

7、hinacommercerevenuegrowthof38/26%YoY.PERadjx40.229.721.716.7TotalDPSRmb0.000.000.000.00Globalization,along-termgoal.ChairmanJackMaandCEODanielZhangTotaldivyield%0.00.00.00.0bothidentifiedglobalizationasalong-termgoalforAlibaba.BABAguidestoROA%14.918.0

8、20.221.6ROE%25.026.929.430.1leverageitsadvantageintheChinamarkettopenetratetheglobalmarket.EV/EBITDAx50.226.619.615.1Thecompanyisworkingonitsglobalbusinessesfromthreeangles–1)toNetdebt/equity%-16.0-21.0-32.3-42.7P/BVx8.77.05.64.4deliver