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1、DeutscheBankResearchGlobalCommoditiesDateCommodities22June2017QuarterlyScalingbackambitionsMichaelHsuehOverviewHopesofpositivesectorreturnsthisyearappeartobedashed,althoughResearchAnalystflatterforwardcurvesmeanlessnegativerollreturns.Unusually,weaknesswas+44-20-754-78015widespreadacrossenergy,indust
2、rialmetalsaswellaspreciousmetals.Fromthemacroside,weakcoreinflationandaflatteningTreasuryyieldcurvethrowPatrickJonesupwarningsigns,althoughtheweakerdollarisgenerallyseenasasupport.ResearchAnalystGeopoliticalrisksinAsiaandtheArabianPeninsulahaveadouble-edgedflavor+44-20-754-53400owingtorisksforbothsuppl
3、ydisruptionor,alternatively,breakdowninOPECcohesion.GeorgeBuzhenitsaResearchAnalystCrudeOil+971-4-361-1734DespitetheOPECextension,thelikelihoodofreachingfive-yearaverageinventorybyend-17isvanishinglysmallwithoutadeepeningofcuts(~1mmb/d).WeseeSharonDingashrinkingmarketdeficitthisyearandareturntosurplus
4、in2018onupgradedResearchAnalystUSsupplygrowthandhigheroutputfromLibyaandNigeria.Onthebrightside,---apparentoilproductdemanddoesnotyetpresentaconvincingreasontodegradeourGDP-baseddemandgrowthassumptionof+1,380kb/dyoy.Althoughapartialrundownofinventorycouldyetoffersomesupport,wescalebackourmedium-termf
5、orecastby-15%toUSD54/56/bblBrentin2018/19.PreciousMetalsWeareneutralongold,withthecurrentspotpriceroughlyatouryear-endtarget.OurregressionmodelestimatesamarketpremiumofUSD61/ozatagoldpriceofUSD1,254/oz,andourforecastsassumethatthismarketpremiumremainsstabletohigherintoyearend.Onourhousemacroforecast
6、s,however,risksforgoldremainconsistentlytothedownsideaswearebullishtheUSdollarandtheS&P500whilewealsoexpectrealTreasuryyieldstomovehigher.IndustrialMetalsWhilewetrimnickelpriceforecasts,ouryear-endtargetis22%abovethethree-monthforwardasdemandforstainlesssteelremainsstrongandpricesstandwellbelowincen
7、tivecost.Wearestillconvincedbylongertermdeficitsincopperpost-2018,butconcernedthatthemetalmayremaininaholdingpatternfornowowingtoweaknessindemandindicatorsforgridinvestmentandautomobilemanufacturing.We
