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1、POLICYBRIEF17-27WillRisingnProductivitygrowth,andwithitpotentialgrowth,hasdeclined.WhetheritremainsloworpicksupintheInterestRatesLeadfutureisuncertain.nInterestratesareexpectedtoincreasefromtheirtoFiscalCrises?currentlowlevels.Byhowmuchandatwhatpaceis—again—u
2、ncertain.nManyadvancedcountrieshavestrongpopulistmove-OlivierJ.BlanchardandJerominZettelmeyerments(orevenpopulistleaders)espousingriskymacro-July2017economicpolicies.ThesefourdimensionsmakeforapotentiallydangerousOlivierBlanchardistheC.FredBergstenSeniorFello
3、watthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomicsandthecocktail.Supposeinterestratesincreasedsubstantially.RobertM.SolowProfessorofEconomicsemeritusatMIT.Combinedwithlowgrowth,highdebt,andpopulistpres-JerominZettelmeyerisseniorfellowatthePetersonInstitutesure,
4、itwouldbearecipeforfiscalcrises.forInternationalEconomicsandformerdirectorgeneralforeconomicpolicyattheGermanFederalMinistryforEconomicIsthisgeneralsenseofdiscomfortwarrantedonceoneAffairsandEnergy.TheauthorsthankWilliamR.Cline,Josephthinksthroughhowandwheres
5、uchfiscalcrisesmayunfold?E.Gagnon,PatrickHonohan,JacobFunkKirkegaard,AdamS.Posen,EdwinM.Truman,andÁngelUbideforvaluablecom-Therearetworeasonsnottobeoverlyworried.ThefirstismentsanddiscussionsandColombeLadreitdeLacharrièrebasedonempirics,thesecondoneconomicpri
6、nciples.andThomasPelletforresearchassistance.First,mostgovernmentswillhavetimetoadjustto©PetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics.risinginterestrates,partlybecausetheriseinratesisexpectedAllrightsreserved.tobeslow,butmoreimportantlybecauseofthematuritystruc
7、tureofpublicdebtinadvancedcountries.Thisdeter-mineshowquicklyanincreaseininterestratestranslatesForseveralquartersnow,theeconomicnewshasbeenintoanincreaseininterestpaymentsbythegovernment.mostlypositive.Abalanced,broad-basedrecoveryseemsManycountrieshaveusedt
8、helowlongratestolengthentheunderway.Forthefirsttimesince2010,itencompassesmaturitystructureoftheirpublicdebt,sothematurityofallmajorregionsoftheworld.Tobesure,managingthethedebtisfairlylo
