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1、DissertationDeterringSpaceWarAnExploratoryAnalysisIncorporatingProspectTheoryintoaGameTheoreticModelofSpaceWarfareBonnieL.TriezenbergThisdocumentwassubmittedasadissertationinSeptember2017inpartialfulfillmentoftherequirementsofthedoctoraldegreeinpublicpolicyanalysisatth
2、ePardeeRANDGraduateSchool.ThefacultycommitteethatsupervisedandapprovedthedissertationconsistedofGeoffTorrington(Chair),AaronFrank,andScottPace.PartialfundingwasprovidedbytheU.S.NationalReconnaissanceOfficeSurvivabilityAssuranceOfficeandtheRANDCorporation’sProjectAIRFOR
3、CE.PARDEERANDGRADUATESCHOOLAbstractIfouterspacebecomesanactivetheaterofwar,theimpacttodailylifeonearthwouldbesubstantial.Unintendedconsequencesofattacksinspacearehardtocontainandarenotalwaysreadilyreversible—debrisorradiationgeneratingattacksrenderspecificorbitsunusabl
4、e,notjustforthedurationofthewar,butfortheforeseeablefuture.Withthelossofthoseorbits,ourliveswouldbeverydifferent—accurateweathermaps,overheadimagery,accesstobreakinginternationalnews,andnavigationservicesthatguideourcars,airplanes,andshipswouldalldisappear.Evenintheabs
5、enceofcatastrophicattacks,warinspacewouldhaveachillingeffectoncommercialuses.Deployingnewcapabilityinspaceisrisky,andwarwouldmakeitinfinitelymoreso.Spaceentrepreneurshipwouldgrindtoahalt,denyingmankindcapabilitieswehaveyettodreamof.Inthisdissertation,Iuseagametheoretic
6、modelofspacewartoexaminehowsentimentsinmultipledimensionsimpactstatedecisionsregardingwhethertoexpandagroundwarintothespacedomain.Keyinnovationsofthismodelarea)theuseofprospecttheoryinlieuofrationalchoiceandb)theassumptionofnon-unitaryactorswithindependentsentimentsreg
7、ardingdifferentdimensionsofnationalinterests.Iofferanewwaytovisualizeandthinkabouthowsentimentimpactstheabilitytotailoradeterrencestrategytospecificcircumstances.Theseinnovationsenablearichexplorationofhowspacewarmightplayoutacrossawiderangeoffutures.Basedonthatexplora
8、tion,Irecommendspecificstepsspacefaringnationsshouldtaketorobustlydetertheexpansionofwarsintothespacedomain.Myrecomme
