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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateHongKongHongKongBanks4July2017Banking/FinanceBanksIndustryUpdateFrancoLamExpectationsgettingunrealistic?ResearchAnalyst(+852)22036226DowngradingBoCHKtoSellfranco.lam@db.comSharepricerunningfasterthanexpectationsKeyChange
2、sTheraterisethemehasbeenakeyfocusthisyearandoperatingtrendshaveCompanyTargetPriceRatingsofarbeensupportive.WhileHKbanksshouldbenefitfromhigherrates,the2388.HK32.00toHoldtoSellearningsimprovementisexpectedtobegradual.Withsharesrunningstrong,35.00(HKD)especiallyfor
3、BoCHK,(+37%YTD,outperformedMSCIHKby15%,HSIby17%0011.HK145.00to-YTD),unrealisticexpectationsarenowintheprice-themarkethasonly158.00(HKD)factoredinthepositives,ignoredthenegativesanddoesnotrealizebenefits0023.HK22.00to-arenotalwayslinear.Withvaluationsat1.6xP/B,14x
4、P/Eand12%2018ERoE23.50(HKD)(2xSDaboveitshistoricalmeanP/Emultiples),wedowngradeBoCHKtoSell2356.HK17.00to-(fromHold).BEAalsoremainsaSellandwemaintainHoldonHSB.18.50(HKD)0440.HK63.00to-Investorsshouldnotignorekeychangesinthebankinglandscape72.00(HKD)Weexpectastrong
5、setof1H17results:better-than-expectedsystemloanSource:DeutscheBankgrowth(8%YTD,14%YoY),higherrates(avg.3MHiborin2017was26bpToppickshighervs.2H16)andstabledepositcosts(compositeinterestratesat31bp).ButweshouldneverignorethestructuralchangeinthecompetitiveDSBG(2356
6、.HK),HKD16.68Buylandscape.TheHKbankinglandscapehasevolvedsignificantly,withtheDahSingFinancial(0440.HK),HKD65.80BuyChinesebanksnowamuchstrongerforceindrivingassetgrowth.Inourview,Source:DeutscheBankthekeydownsideriskinthelongerrunisthatloangrowthcouldbeoffsetbyCo
7、mpaniesFeaturedlowermarginsas(1)newloangrowthwillbetiltedmoretowardsmainlandentities/SOEs(29%ofsystemlending)andcorporatedriven;and(2)otherlargeBOCHongKongHoldingsSellChinesebanksinHK,withestimatedlendingmarginsc.120bpbelow(2388.HK),HKD37.90BoCHK/HSBwillcompetemo
8、reaggressivelytogainmarketshare.2016A2017E2018EP/E(x)4.714.013.9Handover20thanniversary:banking’s2CstoMainlandChinaDivyield(%)7.73.63.4Thisyearwillmarkthe20tha
