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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsSpecialReportDateCEEMEAForeignExchange12June2017RatesCreditElinaRibakovaChiefEconomistEMEAMonthly:Favourablebackdrop(+44)207547-1340elina.ribakova@db.comKubilayOzturkGreenshootsofgrowthinEMEA,withtheex
2、ceptionofSouthAfrica,whileChiefEconomistinflationremainssubdued,withtheexceptionofTurkey.GrowthinCEE(+90)2123170124remainsstrongasaresultofbothdomesticdemandandnetexports.Turkey’skubilay.ozturk@db.comcyclicalupswingcontinuesowingtocreditandfiscalstimul
3、us.Russia’sgrowthisonthemend.WeexpectCBTtotakeadvantageofashallowandcyclicalDaneleeMasiaimprovementinTurkey’sinflationinend-July/early-August.InRussiainflationEconomistisattheCBRtargetof4%,allowingtheCBRtocontinuewithcutsevenif(+27)11775-7267effectsoft
4、hegoodharvestarefading.InSouthAfrica,inflationdecelerateddanelee.masia@db.comsharplyinrecentmonths,aswehadexpectedwithcoreat4.8%.HongtaoJiangWehaverevisedupour2017realGDPgrowthforecastsfortheCE3anddownforSouthAfrica.Wemademarginaladjustmentstoinflation
5、.InCEEactivityStrategist(+1)212250-2524indicatorsthroughAprilpointtoastrongerrecoverythanpreviouslyexpected.hongtao.jiang@db.comInSouthAfricawetakegrowthdownby0.2ppsto0.4%in2017,onthebackofamuchlowerthanexpectedQ1;thereisverylittleroomforslippageinourC
6、hristianWietoska2017forecast.InTurkey,wenowforecastalargercurrentaccountdeficitforboth2017and2018thanpreviouslyexpected.Strategist(+44)20754-52424InthismonthlyweupdateourvulnerabilityoutlookforEM,stilllargelychristian.wietoska@db.comsubdued,introducesp
7、ecialreportsonEgypt—StayingthecourseandTurkey--Turkey:CGF,thecurrentaccount,andTRY.Egypt’sT-billmarket,yielding20%,GautamKalani,PhDaswellasEurobondshavereceivedalotofinvestorattentionandintheStrategistspecialreportweexplainnear-termbalanceofrisks.ForTu
8、rkey,weanalyse(+44)20754-57066macroimplicationsoftherecentquantitativemeasurestorevivecredit.gautam.kalani@db.comInFixedIncome,staylonginshort-endOFZsinRussia.Keep1YIRSreceiverswhileinXCCYfavour1Y–2Y2Yflatteners.InTurkeyswitchfrom1YXCCY
